Yesterday I was talking to my editor when he mentioned the production the Mariners are getting out of their first basemen and suggested I look into it. So here we go …
Seattle is essentially platooning at first base this season, with Adam Lind getting most of the starts against right-handed pitchers and Dae-Ho Lee getting most of the starts against left-handed pitchers. Here’s their numbers going into Tuesday night’s game vs. Cleveland (BA, HR, RBI, OPS):
Lind .241, 6, 23, .668
Lee .305, 8, 20, .898
If we combine their numbers and extrapolate through a full season we get this:
Combined/extrapolated .267, 40, 122, .758
That’s pretty good production from first base, though it’s tempered by a shortage of extra-base hits that aren’t homers (four doubles, no triples), as well as a low number of walks (11). Still, it’s serviceable, and compared to what the Mariners have gotten from their first basemen the previous six seasons it’s downright explosive.
Just how bad have Seattle’s first basemen been? Consider that first base is probably the least-intensive defensive position because a player doesn’t have to be able to run or throw to play first. Therefore, it’s a position that should allow a team to get a good hitter into the lineup.
But what have the Mariners gotten out of their first basemen the previous six seasons? Let’s take a look (same stats):
2015: Logan Morrison/Jesus Montero, .224, 22, 73, .680
2014: Logan Morrison/Justin Smoak, .236, 18, 68, .683
2013: Justin Smoak, .238, 20, 50, .746
2012: Justin Smoak, .217, 19, 51, .654
2011: Justin Smoak, .234, 15, 55, .719
2010: Casey Kotchman/Justin Smoak, .222, 14, 65, .633
From 2011-13 Smoak didn’t actually play the full seasons, but he had 427 at bats or more each season and there was no obvious candidate to pair him with (multiplying the counting numbers by 1.3 will achieve a reasonable full-season estimate).
Man, is that ugly.
The last decent season Seattle received from a first baseman was in 2009, when Russell Branyan went .251, 31, 76 with an .867 OPS. Since then the Mariners somehow managed to take the position in which the most offense is expected and turn it into a black hole. Of the nine players listed at first base from 2010-15, only three managed to be league average offensively based on OPS+, which takes into account league and park factors — Smoak in 2011 and 2013, Morrison in 2014. And that’s not league average for a first baseman, that’s league average across all positions. For the most part Seattle was running out players at first base who were as offensively productive as a typical shortstop, a position that’s adding far more defensive value than first base.
The Lind/Lee combination isn’t quite as productive at its roots as it appears on the surface, mainly because it’s almost all wrapped up in the long ball. Still, I estimate that the combination has an OPS+ of 109, with league average being 100. Let’s put that into a league context. Looking at the primary first basemen for each team in the American League, Seattle’s 109 OPS+ would rank tied for sixth in the league, comfortably behind the likes of Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer, yet ahead of any other team in the AL West.
So even though the Lind/Lee combination is just providing the production a team receives on average from its first basemen, it’s been a long time since the Mariners were average at first, and it’s a heck of a lot better than we’ve become accustomed to in Seattle.
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