Take a good look at the Mariners this week, because you’ll be seeing some of these guys for the last time in Seattle. Another season of 90-plus losses means the only sure things for 2006 are Ichiro Suzuki in right field, Felix Hernandez on the mound and Richie Sexson making his home-run trot 35-40 times.
Otherwise, expect a busy winter of roster restructuring that will bring the Mariners to (1) say good-bye to players they no longer need, (2) trade some decent talent in order to fill their greatest needs – pitching and a left-handed power bat – and (3) hope that the players who fell short of expectations this year will have comeback seasons in 2006.
What’s in the future for the current crop of Mariners? Here’s a look at each player and his likely impact on the club next year:
Starting pitching
Felix Hernandez’s impressive introduction to the majors has taken the pressure off the M’s to acquire a true No. 1 starter. Still, Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche haven’t removed questions over their reliability, and there are enough issues with the starting staff to force the M’s to look at what’s available this offseason.
* RHP Felix Hernandez: He’s not going anywhere but the mound every five days. He’ll be only 20 but, unless the Mariners find a way to coax Dontrell Willis from the Marlins, Hernandez will be their No. 1. Look for him on opening day.
* LHP Jamie Moyer: He’ll be 43, but my guess is that he’ll play another year provided he can get a reasonable deal. Memo to the M’s: Make him a reasonable deal; you need Moyer in the rotation.
* RHP Joel Pineiro: We learned this year that Pineiro isn’t the dominant, No. 1 starter that the Mariners had hoped he would be. A true No. 1 brings consistency from start to start. Pineiro has struggled with that from inning to inning. Other teams have asked frequently about obtaining Pineiro and, if the Mariners can improve their starting pitching by trading him, they should go for it.
* RHP Gil Meche: Despite his inconsistent – and frustrating – 2005 season, Meche can be dominating when he has his health and confidence. The worst thing to happen is that the Mariners trade Meche, then watch him get it all together with another team. Keep him.
* RHP Ryan Franklin: He’s a better pitcher than his record and ERA, but the past two years have worn on Franklin. It’s probably best for the Mariners and Franklin that he move on.
* LHP Bobby Madritsch: His shoulder injury in early April may have been the biggest blow to the team this year. Madritsch brings the attitude of a street fighter to the mound, an element that was badly missed on a staff that needed not only his left arm, but his spirit.
* RHP Jeff Harris: The feel-good story of 2005 after finally reaching the majors at age 31, a lot would need to happen for Harris to make the starting rotation in 2006. He could, however, be a good fit in the bullpen.
Relief pitching
The bullpen could be the Mariners’ brightest hope for the 2006 season, provided J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton learned from the ups and downs of 2005 and Rafael Soriano completes his comeback from major elbow surgery.
* LHP Eddie Guardado: The M’s and Guardado have mutual options for his return in 2006, and both should exercise it. Forget his recent problems. Guardado pitches on emotion, guts and pinpoint control, three vital elements that would be difficult to find if the Mariners don’t bring him back.
* RHP J.J. Putz: He’s slowly working his way toward closer duty, but he could use at least another year of setup to get there. Most of all, the Mariners need his 96 mph fastball for late-inning work.
* RHP Rafael Soriano: His return was one of the most positive stories in a disgusting season. It may take Soriano another full season to completely rebuild his strength and control, but when it comes, the Mariners will have one of the most dominant right-handed relievers in baseball.
* RHP Julio Mateo: He’s the unsung hero of this year’s staff, pitching phenomenal middle relief. If the Mariners find themselves straining to fill out the starting rotation, I’d give Mateo a chance there.
* LHP Matt Thornton: If Thornton were a right-hander, the Mariners wouldn’t have been nearly as patient with his inconsistent control. Being a lefty with a 96 mph fastball, Thornton is a rare bird that almost any team would love to try and turn around. That’s why he’s still with the M’s and why they should bargain hard if he becomes a part of trade talks.
* RHP Scott Atchison: Another good comeback-from-injury story, he deserves a chance to make it in long relief.
* RHP Shigetoshi Hasegawa: His best days have passed, and the Mariners have too many young right-handers who can relieve. Say goodbye to Shiggy, and wish him well.
* RHP Jeff Nelson: When the Mariners plowed through the past two weeks without using Nelson, it was hardly a handwriting-on-the-wall metaphor for Nellie’s future with Seattle. More like a big, bold message: YOU’RE DONE HERE.
Infield
Defensively, the Mariners are in great hands, especially with Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. Offensively, the pressure will be on third baseman Adrian Beltre to prove that 2005 was a one-year anomaly and not a return to what his career had been before his monster 2004 season.
* 3B Adrian Beltre: Whether it was unfamiliar American League pitching or the pressure to live up to his 2004 numbers, Beltre was an offensive dud considering the expectations. The Mariners are stuck paying him $64 million over five years, way too much for him to be a 20-homer guy. If Beltre doesn’t improve, he could become the biggest front-office mistake in franchise history.
* SS Yuniesky Betancourt: The Mariners haven’t had a shortstop who could field this well since Omar Vizquel. Betancourt has great range and a strong arm, and it looks like he may develop something Vizquel didn’t have early in his career: a good bat. Don’t just keep him, embrace him.
* 2B Jose Lopez: At some point, performance needs to meet potential. Lopez has long been one of the Mariners’ top prospects but, unless he develops soon, I would give the second base job to the player who showed he truly deserves it, Willie Bloomquist.
* 1B Richie Sexson: Pencil him in at first base, pray he stays healthy, and watch him deliver another 35 or more home runs.
* 2B/SS/3B/OF Willie Bloomquist: His versatility got him a job in the majors, but also the label of “utility player.” After the M’s cut Bret Boone, Bloomquist proved he can be an everyday second baseman. Hopefully, he’ll get that chance again.
* 3B/1B/DH/PH Greg Dobbs: He came back from Class AAA Tacoma with a new hitting approach that resulted in some important late-inning production. The Mariners will need that in 2006, especially from a left-handed hitter.
* 3B/1B/DH/PH Dave Hansen: He’s considered one of the best left-handed pinch-hitters in baseball, but with Dobbs getting a better grasp on that role, chances are good Hansen will be looking for another team this winter.
* 2B/SS Ramon Santiago: Hello, Tacoma.
Outfield
This is the Mariners’ best opportunity to add a left-handed power bat. They can either do it by signing a left fielder or moving Raul Ibanez into the everyday role in left field and signing a power-hitting DH.
* RF Ichiro Suzuki: He’ll return, hopefully willing to take more risks as a baserunner to put pressure on opposing defenses.
* CF Jeremy Reed: His fans raved about his defense, but his detractors pointed to his hitting. Before anyone decides the Mariners should look elsewhere to improve the offense out of the center field position, even if it means giving up on defense, remember how Randy Winn struggled out there two seasons ago. Safeco Field is a spacious park that lends itself to a pitching-and-defense approach, and the Mariners could hurt themselves dramatically with a lesser outfielder than Reed.
* LF/DH Raul Ibanez: He proved late this season he can play left field every day. He deserves a chance in 2006.
* LF Mike Morse: Two strikes are against Morse: The Mariners really need a left-handed hitter, and he’s still a work in progress after converting from shortstop.
* LF Chris Snelling: Another knee injury makes you wonder if Snelling will ever be healthy.
Catching
Does Dan Wilson really have to retire? Unless there’s another Molina brother (or cousin, or second cousin…) out there, the Mariners will go into 2006 with serviceable catching. At such a vital position, they need more than serviceable.
* Yorvit Torrealba: Solid but not spectacular behind the plate, Torrealba was an improvement over Miguel Olivo just by making occasional contact – with his glove and bat.
* Miguel Ojeda: Hopefully he learned a lot late this season. The lessons may do him good in Tacoma.
* Rene Rivera: Until Jeff Clement is ready for prime time (there are scouts who say it may take a while), Rivera could become the Mariners’ immediate future behind the plate. He was impressive during his few opportunities at the big-league level the past two seasons.
Kirby Arnold is The Herald’s baseball writer
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