Calkins: Could Julio Rodriguez be next Mariner in HOF?

Twenty, maybe 25 years from now, do you see a player entering the Baseball Hall of Fame with a Mariners cap on?

If Félix Hernández, the former Cy Young winner who finished with just more than 20% of the vote this year, doesn’t garner enough support — is a current M up next, after Ichiro was voted in this week?

You have multi-time All-Star pitcher in Luis Castillo along with a quartet of young standouts rounding out the rotation. You have one of the more consistent catchers in baseball in Cal Raleigh, and a send-everyone-home closer in Andrés Muñoz.

But consider the sentences above to be a throat-clearing exercise for the real Cooperstown candidate: Julio Rodriguez.

Does he have it in him?

The Mariners center fielder is one of the more fascinating studies in MLB right now. His rookie season in 2022 drew comparisons with Ken Griffey Jr … and they weren’t totally unjustified.

The Dominican posted a WAR of 6.2 that year, which was better than all but one of Griffey’s first four major-league seasons. No surprise that it prompted the M’s to lock him up with a contract that guaranteed him at least $209 million.

Seemed like the right move. Maybe even team-friendly considering what superstars are getting paid these days. And even though the ever-concerning “sophomore slump” seemed to bite Rodriguez during the first half of the next season, he rallied to finish fourth in the American League MVP race.

Still, pitchers began to notice some tendencies from the now-24-year-old. He lacked discipline on pitches outside of the zone. His chase rate jumped from 33.5% in ‘22 to 37.4% in ‘23. It’s not that he wasn’t still an extremely potent weapon, but his WAR dropped to 5.3.

Then came last season. Another slow start — this one so unproductive (by his standards) that he missed the All-Star Game. And the lack of offense came when the Mariners — buttressed by perhaps the best pitching staff in baseball — needed runs.

Rodriguez developed a reputation for wanting to play the hero — not necessarily because he wanted the glory but because he knew the expectations he shouldered for this franchise. Even so, that mentality often got in his way. And though Rodriguez still finished with a 4.3 WAR — just 0.4 behind Raleigh for the team lead — it marked another year of modest decline that’s taken him from elite to pretty good.

So now we have a bit of a mystery on our hands. Is a three-year sample size enough to give us a road map as to how Julio’s career will unfold? Was that 5.3 WAR in Year 2 the mean we should expect, or will at-bats continue to be more trying for J-Rod?

This isn’t exactly like Félix — not yet, at least. Hernandez was one of the game’s most dominant pitchers for close to a decade before a quick and sharp decline removed his Hall of Fame status in the eyes of most voters (for now, at least). Hernandez met or surpassed expectations in the prime of his career. Rodriguez is still chasing them.

The good news is that he remains one of MLB’s most gifted players, regularly dazzling with his glove and speed regardless of how he’s faring in the batter’s box. And when the man gets hot — whether it’s in May, July or late August — he seems to stay that way for a long time.

It should also be noted that even players such as Bryce Harper, whose two MVPs came six years apart, have seasons when they are just a bit better than average. But this column isn’t about whether Julio is an exceptional baseball player. It’s whether he can land in the Hall of Fame one day.

I’m going to go with yes. This yes is assuming he doesn’t start experiencing injuries that have undone some of the sport’s best. Rodriguez has been sidelined for brief stretches before, but his body hasn’t indicated that it’s prone to regular breakdowns.

I’m betting on his maturity as a hitter overriding the scouting reports that incrementally weighed down his statistics over the past couple of years. I’m betting on a breakthrough in 2025, when the Mariners — MIA on impactful transactions — need that bat.

J-Rod remains an enigma. It’s still too early to know whether the M’s overpaid or underpaid for him. But no one denies his talent. Look for him to harness that soon … and for many years to come.