For most teams in the NFL, if you squint a certain way, you can picture a playoff run.
Or a disaster.
During the majority of the Pete Carroll era, you could pretty much count on at least 9-10 wins — and in most years, a postseason bid.
This year feels different. There may be a higher ceiling — but there’s also the danger of a lower floor.
There are the obvious factors that play into the floor giving out that apply to every team, every year, so we’ll rule those out for now.
A rash of injuries, especially to key players or at positions where depth is a problem — offensive line, defensive line and linebacker are of particular concern in Seattle — can derail a team’s season.
Seahawks kicker Jason Myers could get the yips and cost his team a couple of games.
Bad luck, like the the ball bouncing a certain way and landing with the other team, is always a threat. But the Seahawks have bigger questions this year. Here are three of them.
Can Mike Macdonald coach?
Around the Puget Sound, Macdonald seems like the greatest 0-0 coach of all-time. He’s been labeled a genius, a strong leader, a great teacher, etc. The NFL, however, has chewed up and spit out hundreds of guys that were “the next great thing.”
He’ll try to start 1-0 when Denver travels to Seattle’s Lumen Field on Sunday.
I am optimistic about Macdonald. I think he’s a few steps ahead of NFL offensive minds, and the Seahawks will look like a different team defensively. The Baltimore Ravens were ranked 19th in points allowed in 2021. They hired Macdonald after he’d turned around Michigan’s defense, and the Ravens jumped to third in 2022 and first last season. He seems like the right guy. But, we won’t know until we know.
Does Grubb’s offense work in the NFL?
Grubb moves over from Washington’s offense, and the Huskies were electric last season. Grubb used shifts and motion to allow Michael Penix Jr. to find one-on-one matchups and let the receivers make plays.
Grubb diagnosed college defenses, and found holes his offenses could exploit.
But, this is not Sioux Falls, Fresno State or Washington, which are the three places Grubb has called plays. This is the NFL.
Time will tell if Grubb can utilize Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett like Penix, Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan at UW. Seahawks running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are also some solid toys to provide some fun for Grubb.
He’ll need to be able to make adjustments on the fly and throughout the season when things inevitably don’t go as planned.
Can Geno Smith be above average?
I think we can all agree that Smith is not a top seven guy or a bottom seven guy.
Anything between 8-25 on the list of NFL quarterbacks is a reasonable debate. I’m going to say Smith will end up in the higher portion of that range. If he can be a 10-12-ranked kind of quarterback, the Seahawks will win 10-12 games and a be a threat in the playoffs with Macdonald’s defense.
I think he gets there this year. The offense has lacked a competent playcaller during Smith’s Seahawks starts. Macdonald may be less likely to meddle with the offense than Carroll appeared to be during his regime.
Grubb will make better use of Seattle’s receivers, and other offensive weapons, and like Macdonald, Grubb is off to a great 0-0 start so far.
I’ll say both guys have 11-7 and a playoff victory on their resumes at the end of the season.
Or maybe they’ll go to the Super Bowl.
Or maybe it’ll be a disaster.
We’ll know a lot more by Sunday evening.
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