Geno Smith is a good quarterback.
But the Seahawks need to let him go — by March 16.
Will they? Seahawks general manager John Schneider has not spoken to the media since the preseason. Head coach Mike Macdonald spoke glowingly of Smith but was noncommital about his future as a Seahawk. It’s possible the team might take some input from its yet-to-be-hired offensive coordinator.
Remember all that talk of Smith earning $6 million in bonuses in the season finale? It turns out to be six million more reasons to either cut or extend the 34-year-old signal-caller before March 16. Technically, the three incentives Smith hit for $2 million each are escalators to next year’s contract and are not guaranteed. They are not bonuses — which typically are paid whether or not a player remains with the team.
If Smith goes, the $6 million won’t go with him.
Smith has one year remaining on his deal that would pay out $31 million, which includes the escalators. His 2025 cap number is up to $44.5 million — $8.7 million of which is from a signing bonus that is spread out over the life of the 3-year deal that goes through next season.
While Smith may return next year, it’s unlikely to be with a $44.5 million cap hit. Prior to March 16, the team would likely sign Smith to a short contract that spreads out the cap hit down the road if they decide he’s their guy.
Why March 16? That’s when a $16 million roster bonus hits — the point of no return.
Smith’s agent, Chafie Fields, is certainly well aware of that date. Fields will likely be pursuing a long-term deal that pays Smith among the top quarterbacks in the NFL.
The problem is, Smith isn’t. He’s a good quarterback likely looking for great money.
While signing Smith to a short extension in the range of $30 million per year wouldn’t be the worst thing, it may take a lot more. The Seahawks should be prepared to walk away from the table if the deal isn’t good for the team’s future. What we won’t know until the Seahawks make a decision on which direction to go with Smith, is what they truly think of their starter the past three seasons at the most important position in sports.
Macdonald doesn’t say much, but he dropped hints, whether intentionally or not, about offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker and kick returners Dee Williams and Leviska Shenault Jr. All were gone soon after. Macdonald is not afraid to pull the plug on machines that aren’t running well. Expressed displeasure with Smith has been rare, though, or perhaps muted. Macdonald has not used a tone when talking about Smith that would seem to indicate he’s seen enough — to move on or retain him.
“We did a lot of really good things and one of those things is Geno’s (Smith) productivity — and this is something that I’m looking forward to building off of,” Macdonald said on Jan. 7. “I thought he had a really good year … and the feeling you get was he’s proud of the things we did — but felt like we could have done a better job as an offense and as a team and could have put ourselves in a position going to the tournament to go make a run at this thing.”
While the offensive line is certainly an issue, Smith’s five red-zone turnovers this season and inability to complete the ball down the field are the recipe for continued mediocrity. It’s time to finally draft a guy and let him compete with Sam Howell. Or sign a lower-cost, lower-risk option, such as Kirk Cousins, who is likely to be released by Atlanta and could play on a one-year minimum deal while the Falcons continue to pay him.
Use the $31 in cap savings to add an offensive lineman or two. Find an offensive coordinator who can utilize Seattle’s strong offensive weapons. Rip off the bandaid and start 2025 with a new quarterback situation.
It’s a gamble. Perhaps it’s a quick transition like it was between Matt Hasselbeck (2001-2010) to Russell Wilson (2012-2021). Or, it could be the mess of 10 quarterbacks who started games in 10 years between Dave Krieg and Hasselbeck.
While it’s jumping off a cliff into the unknown, this is too strong of a football town to keep winning 9-10 games. That’s what Geno Smith will get you, and it’s time to think bigger. We’ll know by March 16 whether or not Schneider and Macdonald agree.
This story originally appeared in seattlesportsnow.com, of which Aaron Coe is a co-founder.
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