Dangerous prediction: Bedard will have a good year

To those who rolled their eyes when Erik Bedard got a $750,000 raise yesterday after missing nearly half the 2008 season, consider what he would have made if he and the Mariners had gone to arbitration.

To those who choked at seeing the Mariners kicked in $650,000 in incentives if Bedard pitches 150 to 205 innings, that’s not a bad carrot to dangle.

And to those who believe Bedard will be the same guy in 2009 that he was in 2008, when he rarely pitched deep into games and definitely didn’t pitch deep into the season — a painful shoulder shelved him the final three months — I say let’s give the guy a chance.

Yes, it was frustrating to watch Bedard pitch five fairly decent innings, then walk off the mound too many times with the look of an uncaring guy who considered his job done at that point. His managers, John McLaren and Jim Riggleman, tried to break the criticism by saying they believed Bedard was hurt.

Yes, Bedard had shoulder surgery in September, but that exploratory procedure showed there was no tear of the labrum as he’d proclaimed himself. A cyst was removed, the shoulder was cleaned up and then closed up, and Bedard has since progressed though an offseason throwing program without setback. The Mariners expect him to be at or near full strength when spring training begins Feb. 14.

Can we count on Bedard to be a more effective pitcher in 2009 than he was in 2008? Will he pitch deeper into games? Will he make the big trade with the Orioles last year seem a little more worth it? Will he be glad to talk with reporters?

I say yes, yes, yes and probably not. Three out of four isn’t bad.

Remember, Bedard isn’t pitching just for the incentives in front of him this year, he’ll be pitching for a much greater reward as a free agent after the season. If that’s not motivation, then nothing is.

That’s why I’m among those who believe Bedard will have a good year.

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