Dawgs will be good, but Beavs will rule

Finally.

After an interminable summer of short putts and long relievers, college football commences at Montlake. It’s an occasion, if you believe those who bleed purple and gold, that is only slightly more important than a presidential election.

The Washington Huskies – young, inexperienced and brimming with potential – go into 2001 trying to replace Marques Tuiasosopo with an ex-rodeo cowboy, a stellar offensive line with kids as green as Husky Stadium FieldTurf and a schedule that only starts off with Michigan and Miami.

And while it seems unfair to expect Washington to duplicate last season – 11-1, a Rose Bowl championship and a No. 3 ranking – even coach Rick Neuheisel says publicly that this team has the capability to be more explosive.

When that happens is anyone’s guess.

And even if they are, will it help in a conference that placed three teams in the top 10 last year?

Speaking of which, let’s look at the Pacific-10 Conference, in the predicted order of finish:

1. Oregon State (2000 record: 7-1 Pac-10, 11-1 overall) – More than a few look at the Beavers’ 44-24 disaster at Fresno State and figure they’re flaming out as fast as Ryan Leaf’s career. But remember this: In the 2000 opener, OSU barely beat Eastern Washington (EWU!) 21-19, then edged a terrible New Mexico team. Yep. Then they parboiled Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. To me, beating EWU by two is infinitely more embarrassing than losing to Fresno State, which will go to a bowl game this year. Dennis Erickson will get it going. And remember you read it here: OSU will beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium Dec. 1 for the conference title.

2. Oregon (2000 record: 7-1 Pac-10, 10-2 overall) – … but that doesn’t mean the Ducks won’t be formidable. Once Oregon adjusts for the seven studs they lost on defense, watch out. And you know, with Joey Harrington at the controls and Maurice Morris getting his 1,200 yards on the ground, the Ducks will move the ball.

3. Washington (2000 record: 7-1 Pac-10, 11-1 overall) – The thing to like about the Huskies is their resolve. Under Neuheisel, Washington has come back in 13 of its 18 wins. The problem is that Tuiasosopo, the architect of those comebacks and perhaps the best clutch quarterback ever, is throwing inside slants with the Oakland Raiders. That’s no slam on Cody Pickett, Tuiasosopo’s successor. But is it fair to think that Washington will win virtually every close game in 2001 as it did in 2000, given a new quarterback and young offensive line?

4. UCLA (2000 record: 3-5 Pac-10, 6-6 overall) – Many pick the Bruins to win the conference, but until they address their defensive shortcomings, it won’t happen. Sure, UCLA coach Bob Toledo can blame the injury epidemic on a defense that gave up 31.5 points a game last season, but we point to this: Injuries aren’t the reason former ASU defensive coordinator Phil Snow is the third guy to head the stopper department in three years. We love defensive end Kenyon Coleman and the secondary is wildly talented, but Toledo’s job will depend on finally bringing top recruiting class after top recruiting class up to their potential.

5. Stanford (2000 record: 4-4 Pac-10, 5-6 overall) – With quarterback Randy Fasani and one of the league’s best offensive lines, the Cardinal will have little trouble putting points on the board. The problems are on defense, where Stanford has to find a replacement for Willie Howard, a great nose tackle, and Mariner High grad Riall Johnson, pass-rusher extraordinaire. It all probably means that the Cardinal, especially tailback-turned-linebacker Coy Wire, will have to blitz to help the pass rush. That puts a lot of pressure on safety Tank Williams, who, as great as he is, can’t be everywhere at once.

6. USC (2000 record: 2-6 Pac-10, 5-7 overall) – Pete Carroll, Mike Garrett’s third choice to coach the Trojans, geeked out the New England Patriots. So what’s he doing here? This guy’s no John McKay/John Robinson. A good indication is Saturday’s lethargic 21-10 win over San Jose State. And San Jose State is no Oregon, which the Trojans play at Autzen on Sept. 22.

7. Washington State (2000 record: 2-6 Pac-10, 4-7 overall) – A dark horse for a bowl game. Mike Price says this year’s the turnaround. He just might be right this time. Jason Gesser is a terrific quarterback. Tailback Dave Minnich is a tough inside runner who gained some speed in the off-season. Defensively, the Cougars have fast, athletic linebackers and return free safety Lamont Thompson is back from injury. Strong safety Billy Newman is a headhunter who gives stout run support. The weakness comes on the front lines on both sides.

8. Arizona State – (2000 record: 3-5 Pac-10, 6-6 overall) – A great choice in Dirk Koetter as coach. But Jeff Krohn is a stopgap at best until redshirt freshman Andrew Walter develops at quarterback. There’s talent here. Tailback Delvon Flowers appears full speed after missing all of last year with a knee injury. The offensive line has three starters back. Defensive end Terrell Suggs and linebacker Solomon Bates will play on Sundays. However, the Sun Devils are unproven at cornerback, they have to replace Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year Adam Archuleta at linebacker and the offense has to get accustomed to Koetter’s offensive philosophy – a sort of basketball on grass. An interesting team that may be a year or two away.

9. Arizona (2000 record: 3-5 Pac-10, 5-6 overall) – There was a reason John Mackovic was working at ESPN. Chances are he’ll return to the booth sooner than he’d like. He has two jobs: ignite a dreary offense and get butts into the seats. While he has enough of a track record and television exposure that most fans probably have heard of him, he doesn’t have enough talent to attract new fans. The Wildcats are a longterm project.

10. Cal (2000 record: 2-6 Pac-10, 3-8 overall) – Best move coach Tom Holmoe made in the offseason was to hire away Al Borges from UCLA as offensive coordinator. Borges figures to be a great help to quarterback Kyle Boller, a talented guy who’s looked overwhelmed in his two years as a starter. Plus, tailback Joe Igber will be even more effective in what likely will be a wide-open offense, although Cal had five turnovers against Illinois. The Bears defense will have to replace Andre Carter on the end and Jacob Waasdorp in the middle. Cal also has to improve its 7.9 yards per pass attempt against it last year.

Speaking of the Pac-10, here’s a look at Saturday’s games:

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m.

TV, radio: ABC (Channel 4), KOMO radio (1000 AM)

Stars to watch: Washington – The offense is potentially explosive, with a young but talented Cody Pickett at quarterback, freshman Reggie Williams at receiver and Willie Hurst and Rich Alexis splitting time at tailback. No one has figured out how to cover 6-7 tight end Jerramy Stevens. The line is inexperienced but athletic and will be very good by the latter stages of the season. On defense, defensive tackle Larry Tripplett is an All-American candidate and end Marcus Roberson is a solid pass rusher. Outside linebackers Kai Ellis (a JC transfer) and Anthony Kelley are the fastest duo for the Huskies in that position in a decade. Strong safety Greg Carothers is a devastating hitter and Omare Lowe is solid at corner.

Michigan – Quarterback John Navarre, 6-7, is a classic dropback quarterback with a quick release. Tailback B.J. Askew, a 224-pound wrecking ball, bulled for 94 yards and a touchdown against Miami (Ohio) last week. The line is solid, led by three returning starters. On defense, Tacoma product Larry Stevens has star potential at end. Inside linebacker Larry Foote is an All-America candidate and plays alongside Eric Brackins, who’s very consistent. Outside linebacker Victor Hobson is a superb pass rusher.

Breaking down the game: The team that protects its quarterback better has an inside track, for different reasons. Pickett will be only as effective as his young offensive line, which has made its share of mistakes in preseason scrimmages. Navarre’s line is solid, but has to hold off a fast, athletic UW defense which, if it fights off blocks quickly, will find that Navarre is little more than a statue back there. Pickett also has the luxury of throwing to Williams, who has looked like anything but a true freshman.

Bottom line: Michigan’s offense looked sluggish against Miami (Ohio), which had little business being on the same field. Yes, the Wolverines have a game in hand, but at a raucous Husky Stadium, that means little. The UW defense is the best unit on the field, and it should give the offense ample chance to score enough points.

Pick: Washington, 28-16.

Kickoff: 5 p.m.

TV, radio: no TV, KRKO radio (1380 AM)

Stars to watch: Washington State – Quarterback Jason Gesser led an onslaught on Idaho that accounted for 554 yards. Tailback Dave Minnich ran for 127 yards against the Vandals. Nakoa McElrath was the go-to receiver with 10 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Bush, a basketball player, caught four passes for 97 yards. Safeties Lamont Thompson and Billy Newman may be the best duo in the conference. Junior corner Marcus Trufant is outstanding in pass coverage.

Boise State – Sophomore quarterback Ryan Dinwiddie completed 18 of 31 passes for 161 yards in the Broncos’ 32-13 defeat at South Carolina. Tailback Brock Forsey is a former walk-on who ran for a team-high 914 yards last season and was MVP of the 1999 Humanitarian Bowl.

Breaking down the game: Watch for BSU to hang in early, playing at home, but talent wins out. The Broncos are 0-6 against Pac-10 teams. This will be 0-7.

Bottom line: The Broncos have a 14-game home winning streak, but it came against the Cal State Northridges and the Southern Utahs of the world.

Pick: Washington State, 35-17.

Idaho at Arizona: More preseason nonsense. Pick: Arizona, 34-10.

San Diego State at Arizona State: See Idaho at Arizona. Pick: ASU, 34-10.

BYU at Cal: The Cougars are back to rolling up huge point totals, while the Bears are getting used to a completely new offensive scheme. Pick: BYU, 38-30.

Utah at Oregon: UO’s defense looked soft at times against Wisconsin, but should regroup against the Utes. Pick: Oregon, 35-24.

Oregon State at New Mexico State: The real Beavers start here. Pick: OSU, 48-0.

Boston College at Stanford: Tough opener for the Cardinal. Stanford, though, has too many offensive weapons and a homefield advantage. Pick: Stanford, 35-30.

UCLA at Kansas: The Bruins were impressive in their 20-17 win at Alabama. No penalties. No turnovers. And DeShaun Foster ran for 110 yards on 24 carries. Pick: UCLA, 35-10.

Kansas State at USC: Get this. KSU plays a fairly competitive non-conference opponent. On the road, yet. The feeling here is that Carson Palmer (21-for-28 passing, 213 yards against San Jose State) and tailback Sultan McCullough (167 yards, three TDs) may be too much. KSU is playing its first game of the season. Pick: USC, 21-20.