SEATTLE — The Seattle Seahawks are expected to reward quarterback Russell Wilson with a lucrative contract extension at some point this offseason. Linebacker Bobby Wagner may be locked up with a long-term deal as well, and talks have already started on a new contract for running back Marshawn Lynch.
So by the time the 2015 season rolls around, it’s possible, even likely, that the Seahawks will have a nucleus of Wilson, Lynch, Wagner, safety Kam Chancellor, safety Earl Thomas, cornerback Richard Sherman, wide receiver Doug Baldwin, linebacker K.J. Wright, defensive lineman Michael Bennett and defensive end Cliff Avril all locked up through at least the 2016 season.
That’s great news for Seattle’s future; it’s also very expensive news.
Which brings us to this week’s NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. When head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider took over the Seahawks, they inherited a roster that wasn’t particularly talented, but had plenty of well-paid veterans — “We had to cut like $52 million in salary. That’s a lot,” Schneider said of his first days on the job.
A remarkable rebuilding effort resulted in a Super Bowl championship, but the acquisition of so much talent doesn’t just lead to success, it also creates an inevitable side effect of having to pay those young stars who helped Seattle get to consecutive Super Bowls. When the Seahawks hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in 2013, four of their key young players, Wilson, Sherman, Thomas and Wagner, combined to count $5.16 million against the salary cap. By 2016, the cap hit for those four might approach $50 million.
The Seahawks will likely never have as deep of a team as they did in 2013 when so many of their best players were on rookie deals, allowing Seattle to make “luxury” additions in free agency. But that doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t keep winning even after paying so many players, most notably a quarterback likely to make in excess of $20 million per season. If Seattle is going to stay on top, some of the players being evaluated in Indy this week are going to have to play a big role going forward.
Simply put, the NFL’s salary cap means teams can’t keep everybody. Receiver Golden Tate ended up in Detroit not because the Seahawks didn’t like him, but because they couldn’t afford to pay what the Lions were offering. Similarly, cornerback Byron Maxwell could be lost in free agency because the Seahawks can only afford to have so many “paid” players on their defense.
Losing a few key players a year hurts, but it doesn’t have to be devastating, so long as the Seahawks have young, in other words, cheap, replacements who can fill in. If Tharold Simon, a 2013 draft pick, can play well in 2015, the Seahawks would be OK if Maxwell leaves, just as Maxwell helped mitigate the loss of Brandon Browner in free agency.
Miss on too many draft picks, however, and even a star-studded roster featuring names like Thomas, Sherman, Lynch, Wagner and Wilson won’t equal success if the depth isn’t there.
“It presents challenges, there’s no question,” Schneider said of a potential Wilson extension. “We haven’t sat down with his representatives. We are still going to be drafting young players and playing young players, so we might not be able to dip into free agency like you may want to here and there or compensate somebody else that you want to compensate that is already on your team, but just the fact that we’re going to continue to keep drafting players and playing young players should help us compensate for whatever level of compensation (Wilson’s contract) is.”
Part of the reason Schneider remains optimistic is that in a draft he called “pretty cool … It’s pretty spread out and it looks like it’s got some balance to it,” in a recent radio interview on 710 ESPN Seattle, the Seahawks will likely have 10 picks thanks to the compensatory picks they’ll get for the loss of Tate, Browner and Clinton McDonald in free agency.
Given Seattle’s propensity to trade back in order to acquire more picks — the Seahawks entered the 2014 draft with six picks and ended up making nine selections — there’s a good chance the Seahawks will add a dozen or so players in this year’s draft.
Obviously not all of those players will pan out for Seattle, but for the Seahawks to stay on top as a handful of players start taking up a bigger portion of the salary cap, at least some of those players being measured, studied and interviewed this weekend at the combine need to be key contributors in 2015 and beyond.
“There is a lot of optimism for the future because of the youth of our team and the continuity that we think we’re developing by re-signing our guys and keeping it together as best as we can,” Carroll said prior to the playoffs. “It’s a lot of excitement about down the road and what’s next and big draft class coming up, and adding to it the competition that would generate will only make us better, so a lot of good stuff happening.”
The “good stuff” in recent past means a lot of players earning big raises, so for Seattle to stay on top, drafting some inexpensive depth for the future is a must this spring.
Herald Columnist John Boyle: jboyle@heraldnet.com
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