Fantasy owner wins in spite of himself

I made a classic fantasy mistake this past weekend.

I outwitted myself. I overthought my lineup and went against my first instinct.

I sat Adrian Peterson.

There I was Sunday morning surfing the Web at 9:30 a.m. I saw that Peterson faced a “surging” Bears team in Chicago and Edgerrin James had Carolina’s “soft” run defense in the friendly confines of University of Phoenix Stadium. So, after having Peterson in my lineup all week, I sat Peterson in favor of James.

And the rest is history. Peterson had 361 total yards and three touchdowns. Edge had 80 yards and a touchdown, not bad, but …

The classic mistake of trying to be too smart and going against conventional wisdom is as old as fantasy football itself and it’s always a bad idea. Peterson has blossomed into a top-5 back and a must-start every week. When he was with Indy, James was a must-start, but he’s no longer at that level. I decided to go against the obvious and it hurt me. Fortunately I still won.

Sometimes the obvious is obvious for a reason. Needless to say, I’ll have the Vikings rookie in my lineup this Sunday.

Speaking of Peterson …

What’s up with the rookies this season?

Answer: This season’s rookie crop, led by Peterson, has been uncharacteristically strong. Usually a few step up and have decent seasons and then there’s always that bright star, like Marques Colston last year, that blows up. But this year, along with Peterson (the bright star), there’s a number of strong rookies: Bills RB Marshawn Lynch has 441 total yards and three TDs; Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has 415 yards and three TDs in four games; Lions WR Calvin Johnson has more than 200 total yards and two TDs despite battling injuries; Rams RB Brian Leonard has stepped in admirably for Steven Jackson; and in Green Bay, kicker Mason Crosby is eighth in points. Even in IDP (individual defensive players) leagues, 49ers LB Patrick Willis and Jets CB Darrelle Revis are having outstanding campaigns. Of all these, besides Peterson, I think I’d want Johnson the most. Look for the No. 2 pick to explode in upcoming weeks now that he’s healthy.

Why did the Chargers deal for Chris Chambers?

Answer: San Diego is saying that it’s because Eric Parker couldn’t get healthy, but it seems that the Chargers don’t trust Vincent Jackson as their No. 1 wideout. The addition of Chambers is bad for Jackson owners, who couldn’t have been happy with his one catch for 5 yards against Oakland last Sunday. As for Chambers, try and deal for him. He’s finally in an offense that will use his big-play ability; he could be putting up top-10 WR numbers in a few weeks time. Back in Miami, this move opens up playing time for rookie Ted Ginn Jr., but ignore him.

Where has Priest Holmes been?

Answer: Apparently he’s been lurking in the shadows of Arrowhead, working out and biding his time until his shocking return this week. The one-time fantasy stud is back practicing with the Chiefs — after K.C. dealt Michael Bennett to Tampa Bay — and says he wants to play again. File Holmes in the wait-and-see bin. If the reports out of Kansas City are true, he’s in the best shape he’s been in since he left the game two years ago with a neck injury. But this is a guy who tried to come back last season and was unceremoniously cut. Plus he’s behind Larry Johnson, who hasn’t put up great numbers himself. Ignore Holmes — for now. As for Johnson owners, this is nothing but bad news as the great Holmes-Johnson committee of 2005 could be making its return.

How will Koren Robinson’s return affect Green Bay?

Answer: To be honest the Packers have to be delighted he’s back. The one-time Seahawk was reinstated Wednesday after serving a one-year suspension. He’s a veteran deep threat that Green Bay could use at depth at a position they’ve had injury problems at this season. He’ll take a few weeks to get up to speed, but he’s an injury away from being a solid contributor in a free-wheeling pass attack. Don’t pick him up now, but he may be a nice option by Week 9.

Who should I play this week?

Answer: Plug in all your Saints. After a strong showing at Qwest last Sunday, New Orleans gets the Falcons, who are in disarray. Play your Jets and Bengals as Sunday’s game should be a shootout in the Jungle. Tony Romo should explode against the Vikes, Shaun Alexander will bounce back with a couple of TD dances against the Rams and Joey Galloway should shred the Lions’ putrid pass defense.

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