Last Monday my editor and I were chatting in the office when he broached the subject of the Seattle Mariners’ first basemen. He thought a look at the offensive production the Mariners are receiving from their first basemen this season was worthy of a story, and I agreed.
So here we go.
The context for this exploration is the lack of production the Mariners received from their first basemen the past six seasons. First base is supposed to be a spot where teams get offense. It’s perhaps the least defense-intensive position on the diamond because for the most part a first baseman doesn’t need to be able to run or throw. Therefore, it’s the easiest defensive position to get a hitter into the lineup without affecting the defense in a substantial way.
Yet somehow the Mariners managed to take first base and turn it into a black hole the previous six seasons, trotting out a steady stream of impotent bats like Casey Kotchman, Mike Carp, Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison and Jesus Montero. The offensive impact of Seattle’s first basemen was in the vicinity of what the average team received from defense-first positions like shortstop and catcher. The last decent season Seattle received from first base was all the way back in 2009, when Russell Branyan slugged 31 homers in his only season with the club.
But it sure seems things have improved for the better this season, doesn’t it? Newcomers Adam Lind and Dae-Ho Lee have essentially been platooning at first base, with Lind getting the starts against right-handed pitchers and Lee getting the starts against left-handed pitchers.
So what are those two doing this season? Between them, Lind and Lee batted .267 with 17 home runs, 48 RBI and a .788 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) through the Mariners’ first 61 games. Project that over a full season and it comes to 45 homers and 127 RBI.
Not too shabby.
“I don’t know how it compares production-wise with other first basemen around the league, but I’m OK with what we have so far,” Mariners manager Scott Servais answered when asked about the offensive production he’s receiving from his first basemen prior to Friday’s game against the Texas Rangers.
Yet the bar was set so low the previous six years that Lind and Lee could probably wear blindfolds to the plate and still qualify as OK.
Let’s look at last season. Morrison and Montero, Seattle’s primary first basemen, combined to hit .225 with 22 homers, 73 RBI and a .680 OPS.
Or how about 2014, when Morrison and Smoak combined to hit .236 with 18 homers, 68 RBI and a .683 OPS?
What about 2013, when Smoak and Alex Liddi batted .231 with 20 homers, 50 RBI and a .728 OPS?
In 2010 it was as bad as it gets. Kotchman, Smoak and Carp combined to bat a meager .220 with 14 homers, 65 RBI and a .625 OPS. According to FanGraphs.com it was the worst production from first base in the majors that season, and since then only four teams (the 2013 Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers, the 2014 Houston Astros and the 2015 Tampa Bay Rays) had a worse wins-above-replacement value from its first basemen than the Mariners’ minus-2.2.
Man, is that ugly.
Now, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Mariners when it comes to offensive production from first base this season. Dive a little deeper into the numbers and they don’t shine quite as bright as those homer and RBI projections suggest. The biggest issues are the lack of extra-base hits other than homers and the low number of walks. Going into the weekend Lind and Lee had combined for just four doubles and no triples, with Lee not having an extra-base hit other than a homer. They’d combined for just 14 walks. That’s kept the duo’s slugging and on-base percentages in check.
As a result, FanGraphs had the Mariners ranked just 14th among the majors’ 30 teams in first-base production through Friday. But given recent history, average offense from first basemen is a big victory for the Mariners.
And Servais doesn’t think we’ve yet seen everything the Mariners’ first basemen have to offer at the plate.
“I think Adam Lind has a better track record than what he’s done so far, and honestly we’ve gotten more out of Dae-Ho Lee than I expected we’d get at this point,” Servais said. “I thought it would take Dae-Ho a little bit longer to work his way into the league, and he’s handled everything we’ve thrown at him. But I think there’s a lot more left in the tank for Adam Lind. He has the ability to really carry you for a couple weeks or a month, he’s done it in his career before.
“I still think there’s more in there to get from those guys.”
But even if they don’t have more to give, it’s still far better than the Mariners are accustomed to getting from their first basemen.
In conclusion, the Mariners aren’t getting quite as much offensive production from their first basemen as it may appear on the surface. However, at least they’re having a net-positive impact on the offense, which is something the Mariners haven’t been able to say for a long time.
Check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at http://www.heraldnet.com/seattlesidelines, and follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
