It’s American League Cy Young day and around 11 a.m. we’ll learn not only if the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez wins the award, we also should get a strong clue as to the importance of modern statistical analysis to the 28 baseball writers around the country who had ballots this year.
Two members of the Baseball Writers Association of America from each league city are chosen to vote on the BBWAA’s various postseason awards, and I got one of the Seattle chapter’s Cy Young ballots. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times had the other.
To me, Felix did everything to prove himself as the league’s best pitcher except rack up victories that such Cy Young favorites as C.C. Sabathia and David Price did. But to me, there’s a lot more to measure than victories.
That’s why my ballot looked like this (ballots were submitted before the beginning of postseason play):
1, Felix Hernandez, Mariners. He’s the king of the AL with a 2.27 ERA, 249 2/3 innings and .212 average against, and lost the league strikeout title to Weaver by one whiff. There also were his 30 quality starts and six complete games, both far better than anyone else. With a little better run support from one of the worst offensive teams in league history, Hernandez might have won a half-dozen more games. Had that happened, there wouldn’t be any room for argument.
2, Jered Weaver, Angels. If I’m minimizing the low victory total in Hernandez’s case and maximizing the sabermetric side, then I’ve got to look at Weaver the same way. Weaver was a Felix-like was 13-12 but he led my group of 12 top pitchers in strikeouts and consistently ranked among the top five _ often among the top three or four _ in most every other relevant category.
3, C.C. Sabathia, Yankees. I won’t discount his 21 victories but they don’t mean everything to me, either. Sabathia’s 3.18 ERA, his 237 2/3 innings, 1.19 WHIP and other stats rank among the league leaders. However, opponents batted .239 off Sabathia and his 3.54 FIP was well down among the dozen pitchers on my list. Frankly, I easily could have — maybe should have — ranked Sabathia fourth behind David Price.
4, David Price, Rays: His 19-6 record and 2.72 ERA were the best of his numbers. He was impressive in other areas as well (1.19 WHIP, 3.42 FIP, .221 average against), but a couple of stats caused me to drop him behind Sabathia — his 208 2/3 innings and 188 strikeouts. He also had one fewer quality start than Sabathia (and I put some serious stock in quality starts).
5, Jon Lester, Red Sox: His 225 strikeouts ranked third, as did his .220 average against and 3.29 xFIP. However, his 20 quality starts were the least of my top five, as were his 208 innings.
My hindsight misgiving?
That goes to the Tigers’ Justin Verlander, whose numbers in a lot of areas were equal to or better than Lester’s. He was worse than Lester in ERA (3.37 to 3.25), average against (.228 to .220) and xFIP (3.68 to 3.29). Close call there, and I’m sure Verlander will get a lot of votes.
Where’s Cliff Lee?
Lee was fabulous beyond his 12-9 regular-season record. Nobody had a better WHIP, FIP, xFIP or WAR when he was out there. But, to me, a big measure of a pitcher’s value is his ability to make start after start after start. Because of injuries, Lee made 28 of them for the Mariners and Rangers. I drew my line at 30 starts.
Any vote like this leaves room for argument, especially when you’re splitting hairs to separate No. 4 from No. 5 or in deciding whether No. 6 should replace someone else on the list.
The one spot where there’s no dispute in my mind is at the top. Felix Hernandez didn’t have the victories to mark himself as the best pitcher in the American League, but he had everything else.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
