There is a debate that’s raged within the baseball community ever since Bill James pioneered the industry of advanced baseball analytics in the late 1970s:
Does the concept of “clutch” exist? Is the ability to come through in a game’s tightest situations a matter of skill, or is what we consider to be “clutch” just a product of innate ability combined with a scattering of randomness based on small sample sizes?
The 2018 Seattle Mariners are about to provide a piece of anecdotal evidence in this argument.
The Mariners are in first place in the American League West, and whether the M’s can remain in first the remainder of the season will be a test of whether “clutchness” is a thing or not.
Before the season began, the idea of Seattle being in first place in June seemed about as plausible as Kim Kardashian guiding national policy on prison reform. The combination of scant expectations and the presence of the powerhouse World Series-champion Houston Astros in the division made a divisional pennant a pipe dream. The race in the AL West wasn’t for first, but rather for the runner-up spot, with the Mariners hoping to end their 16-year playoff drought via a wild-card berth.
However, Kim and the M’s are having a good laugh at our skepticism. Going into Saturday afternoon’s game at Tampa Bay the Mariners were 40-23, a game ahead of the Astros in the standings. The team’s .635 winning percentage had Seattle on pace for 103 wins, which would be the second most in franchise history, only behind the 116 the Mariners won in 2001 when they tied the major-league record.
Not only is Seattle defying expectations, the Mariners are defying fate as the baseball gods have littered Seattle’s path with obstacles. The Mariners are in first place despite losing star second baseman Robinson Cano to an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. Despite longtime ace pitcher Felix Hernandez’s continued descent into mediocrity. Despite having just about every regular already spend time on the disabled list.
How are the Mariners doing it? They’re doing it by being “clutch.”
No team in baseball has played more close games than Seattle, and one can argue that no team has been better in those close games than the Mariners. Going into Saturday Seattle had played 29 one-run games, far and away the most in the majors. The Mariners were 20-9 in those games, with the 20 wins being five more than any other team. Seattle’s .690 winning percentage in one-run games was behind just the New York Yankeees (10-3, .769), Milwaukee Brewers (15-6, .714) and Atlanta Braves (10-4, .714). Add in the Mariners’ perfect 6-0 record in extra-inning affairs and Seattle has been more “clutch” than a car driver trying to get a manual transmission moving after idling on an uphill slope.
“It’s really remarkable, the run we’ve been on and how we’ve done it,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said following Seattle’s 4-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins on May 26, a win that concluded an incredible stretch in which the Mariners played in six straight one-run games, winning five of them.
“Our pitching is what’s kept us going and put us in this streak we’re in right now. It’s kept us right in all these ballgames, and somehow we figure out how to get a big hit late in the game, and we did it again tonight. Everybody is contributing and everybody feels like they’re a part of it.”
Houston, on the other hand, is on the opposite end of the “clutch”-o-meter. The Astros were a dismal 4-12 in one-run games through Friday, behind only the Minnesota Twins (3-12) in terms of close-game futility. Houston wasn’t any better in extra-inning games, going 1-4.
The result is that though the teams had nearly equal records — Houston was 40-25 going into Saturday — they have vastly different run differentials. The Astros led the majors by a wide margin at plus-125, while the Mariners were a modest plus-23.
There is a Pythagorean calculation used by baseball statisticians to estimate what a team’s record should be based on its run differential. Using that formula Seattle should have been 34-29, meaning the Mariners were six games better than their expected record, the largest positive margin in the majors. Meanwhile, Houston should have been 46-19, meaning the Astros were six games worse than their estimated record, the largest negative difference in the league.
The question is whether these numbers have been a matter of skill or a matter of luck. Is there something about these teams that makes them prone to being good or bad in close games, or will this even out over the course of the season?
On Friday the Mariners won yet another one-run game, defeating the Rays 4-3. That one might be described as a little less “clutch” as Seattle built a 4-0 lead, but had to hold on late as Tampa Bay scored three before the Mariners nailed it down.
However, you can bet the Mariners are hoping the concept of “clutch” is a real thing. If they want to claim a division title, the numbers suggest they’re going to need it.
Follow Nick Patterson on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
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