Here’s a look at the strengths, weaknesses and tendencies of the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians as they enter the American League Division Series today:
The staff that supposedly didn’t have the dominant No. 1 starter necessary to compete in the postseason (remember GM Pat Gillick’s comments on June 8 about Freddy Garcia?) pulled itself together well enough to win 116 games.
Garcia became a mature, focused pitcher and buckled down to win the American League ERA title (3.05), Jamie Moyer won 20 games for the first time in his career and will get Cy Young consideration, Aaron Sele finished with 15 victories (although he won only three games in the final two months), and Paul Abbott won a career-high 17, finally proving that when he’s healthy he can get anybody out.
The key for each of those guys is to mix their hard, soft and breaking stuff well enough to keep the Indians’ big boppers off balance.
There certainly isn’t strength in numbers here. The Indians will go with three starters, only one of whom finished the regular season with a flourish.
C.C. Sabathia, a 20-year-old, allowed just one hit in five innings against Toronto on Sunday to win his 17th game and assure himself the best-in-class designation (best performance by a rookie not named Ichiro) in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Right-hander Bartolo Colon, the Game 1 starter, will bring a fastball that can light the radar gun at 100 mph and hope that things will be different against the M’s in the postseason. They beat him twice in the regular season, 2-1 on Aug. 3 and 4-1 on Aug. 24. Still, Colon has the power to quiet an offense, as evidenced by his two consecutive seasons with 200 or more strikeouts.
Left-hander Chuck Finley, the Game 2 starter, has long been a Mariner nemesis. He finished 8-7 this year with a 5.54 ERA in 22 starts, one of those a two-inning appearance against the Mariners on Aug. 25 that ended after two hitless innings when he hurt his leg while covering first base.
The Mariners are so deep in quality starters that Abbott, who has never lost to the Indians in his career, may stay in the bullpen for this series. The Indians are so thin on starting pitching that they had little choice but to go with three starters, meaning that Finley may come back in Game 5 on three days rest, if the series goes that far. Advantage: Mariners.
It’s generally a six-inning game when the Mariners turn an early lead over to the bullpen, which led the American League with a 3.04 ERA. Norm Charlton, Jeff Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Paniagua and Kazuhiro Sasaki are playoff tested, and Nelson and Charlton have the World Series rings to prove it. Left-hander John Halama, who made the playoff roster over Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin in a gut-wrenching decision by manager Lou Piniella and his staff, is a cool customer who the Mariners like in high-pressure situations.
The Mariners’ wire-to-wire run to the AL West championship allowed Piniella to rest his relievers in the final weeks of the season, then give them enough regular work to sharpen them up for the playoffs.
At 3.70, the Indians have the worst bullpen ERA of the four American League playoff teams. However, if they can get a lead for closer Bob Wickman (32 saves and a 2.39 ERA), the Indians will be in good shape.
Getting that far has been a problem, especially in the Indians’ seven games this season against the Mariners. Long relievers and setup men allowed 15 of the 42 runs the Mariners have scored against Cleveland this season.
The John Rocker signing was such a bust that he nearly was left off the playoff roster after going 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA, including one blown save against the Mariners on Aug. 25.
Bottom line
The Mariners not only have the best bullpen in this series, it’s the best in baseball. Advantage: Mariners.
Mariners
Defense was the least of the Mariners’ problems all year, although that one pillar of strength looked wobbly in the final two weeks of the season when shortstop Carlos Guillen was lost to tuberculosis and David Bell went down with a rib injury.
Bell, who has hands as sure as any third baseman in the league, is back and apparently close to full strength. Guillen will miss at least the first two rounds of the playoffs and will be replaced by Mark McLemore, whose athleticism allowed him to play six positions this season and gives Piniella no loss in confidence at shortstop.
Al Martin’s elbow injury means Stan Javier and Jay Buhner will share starting duties in left field, which may be an improvement defensively.
Nobody is stronger up the middle than the Indians, who feature the artistry of Omar Vizquel at shortstop and Robbie Alomar at second base. The Indians may be vulnerable in the outfield, where center fielder Kenny Lofton can chase down balls in the gaps but has a weak arm that the Mariners have run on this season.
Defense doesn’t slump, which is one reason the Mariners didn’t all season. Vizquel and Lofton are beauty in motion for the Indians. Advantage: Mariners, but only by a hair.
They hit, they run, they hit-and-run.
The offense that began the season with a tinge of uncertainty finished with the highest team batting average (.288) in the league. Two of the smallest players – Ichiro Suzuki and Bret Boone – have made a huge difference. Suzuki was the perfect kick-start for the offense, with a league-leading .350 batting average and a major league-high 56 stolen bases. Boone led the league with 141 RBI.
If you assumed Suzuki also had the team’s highest on-base percentage, you’d be wrong. At .381, he was fourth on the team (behind Edgar Martinez’s .423, John Olerud’s .401 and Mark McLemore’s .384).
The secret weapon could be Mike Cameron, who had a breakout year offensively with 25 home runs and 110 RBI. If he falls into a strikeout slump, as he’s prone to do, the middle of the lineup could suffer.
Their power numbers are scary – six players with 20 or more home runs, including Jim Thome with 49 – but the Indians are more than big boppers.
Kenny Lofton, the guy who ran the Mariners out of the AL Championship Series in 1995, remains a dangerous leadoff hitter even though he stole only 16 bases this season. If the Mariners can keep Lofton, Omar Vizquel and Robbie Alomar off the bases, they’ll be able to challenge Thome and Juan Gonzalez without fear of giving up the three-run homer.
If those first three can get on base, the Indians are capable of scoring a lot of runs in a hurry.
The fate of two offenses that finished the regular season 1-2 in the league (Seattle .288, Cleveland .278) lies in how well they handle each other’s pitching. The Indians’ power could make this a closer series than many experts think it’ll be. Advantage: Even.
The Mariners won five of the seven meetings between the teams this season, and one of those was the “brain lock” game Aug. 5 in Cleveland when the Mariners’ bullpen blew a 12-run lead. The Mariners do too many things right – stealing bases, hitting behind runners, playing air-tight defense, holding onto leads – that the Indians must play flawlessly in all phases to win. They’re capable of it, but the Mariners have forced teams into mistakes all year, including the Indians.
Advantage: Mariners in four games.
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