If Dolly Parton had walked through the lobby at baseball’s winter meetings last week in Nashville, she’d have created a bigger stir than anything the general managers pulled off.
Yes, there was the Marlins-Tigers trade that sent third baseman Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis to Detroit, plus Andruw Jones’ $36.2 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Otherwise, the meetings were as quiet as the Grand Ole Opry on a Monday night.
Johan Santana remained untraded, and until someone meets the Minnesota Twins’ big asking price and then signs Santana to a new contract, baseball will inch along like a slow ballad.
While waiting for the Santana deal to establish the going rate for pitching, nearly every general manager left the meetings spouting an ages-old refrain: “We laid a lot of groundwork.”
That describes the state of the Seattle Mariners at this point in the offseason.
Despite a dire need for pitching, the Mariners didn’t give any of their top prospects at the first negotiations for Santana, Erik Bedard of the Orioles, Edwin Jackson of the Devil Rays or anyone else.
The Mariners came away from the meetings with one pitcher, right-hander R.A. Dickey, who they grabbed in the Rule 5 draft with hopes he will resurrect his once-mediocre career after going to the knuckleball.
Before you say the Mariners are better off by what they didn’t do at the meetings, remember one thing. First baseman Richie Sexson is still here.
While trading Sexson isn’t the first priority, it’s been on the Mariners’ wish list for some time. Problem is, no team seems willing to take Sexson without getting something significant along with him, like having the Mariners pay most of the $14 million they owe him in 2008.
Unwilling to see Sexson break out while paying him to play somewhere else, the Mariners will run him out to first base again.
Arguably, keeping Sexson could be a net loss.
In Sexson’s three years with the Mariners, he’s essentially been a slow-running, 150-strikeout-a-year road block to an offense that needs to hit, run and hit-and-run in order to succeed in Safeco Field.
He struggled to a career-worst .205 batting average, plus a disappointing 21 home runs and 63 runs batted in last season when the Mariners paid him $15.5 million to be a run-producing big bopper.
Those who look at the bright side say Sexson will rebound because a good season will mean millions to him for 2009. Manager John McLaren said last week he looks for Sexson to hit as many as 40 home runs for the Mariners. The obvious follow up to that would be, “Will Sexson have to stay here two more years to hit 40?”
Former manager Mike Hargrove always gave a similar response to questions about Sexson, saying his career numbers indicate he should hit about 30 home runs and drive in at least 100 runs.
If the career numbers argument holds, then there are two ways to read Sexson’s possible impact in 2008. Yes, he’s capable of 30-35 home runs and 100 RBI, and in theory that would aid those hitting around him in the batting order. But on a Mariners team that needs to create rallies and sustain them to generate offense, is Sexson the right guy?
Nobody should expect a hitter to be the sole reason for a team’s success, but the Mariners have long glommed onto the hope that a hot streak by Sexson would carry them in September.
It was no different last season, when everyone waited for a barrage of home runs that never came. Sexson hit six homers after the All-Star break, none in his final 10 games before an injury in early September ended his season.
Looking at Sexson’s career numbers, he’s not exactly Mr. September.
He has averaged 4.7 home runs in the final month, hitting 10.5 percent of his career homes in September in his nine seasons as a regular. By comparison, Edgar Martinez hit 18.3 percent of his homers in September during his final nine seasons, and that includes the final three years when Martinez’s body was worn out in the final month.
You want a clutch hitter in September? The Phillies’ Ryan Howard has hit 25.6 percent of his 82 career home runs in September. Howard, in only his third major league season, made $900,000 in 2007.
Until he proves otherwise, Sexson is a money player in contract only.
Kirby Arnold covers the Mariners for The Herald.
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