Mariners will win …?

Spring training begins Sunday when the Seattle Mariners’ pitchers and catchers report for physical exams in Peoria, Ariz., and new manager Eric Wedge knows what he’s getting himself into.

Based on a lot of online comments I’ve read this winter, so do many fans.

This won’t be an epic ye

ar in the way the Mariners’ division championship seasons of 1995 or 1997 or 2001 were. And while I don’t see it being as especially bad as the 101-loss teams of 2008 and 2010, I’m not willing to say there will be an appreciably greater number of victories.

There’s too much uncertainty in the starting rotation behind Felix Hernandez, too many young players who’ll get the regular playing time they need, still too big a hole in the middle of the batting order where the Mariners continue to lack consistent power.

So let’s go with 68 victories and hope for a season without the drama of a dugout fight, firings and retirements. That would be a nice improvement over 2010, when the all-else-fails side of baseball afflicted the Mariners.

Wedge won’t dare say how many games the Mariners will win, and you won’t find anyone with the organization who’ll even breathe a hint of contention in the AL West. There’s not much love outside the organization, either. The Orange County Register conducted an online poll of the AL West and, in announcing the results, the Mariners weren’t even mentioned.

My guess is that’ll change when Wedge delivers his message to the revolving door of national reporters who’ll show up in Peoria over the next seven weeks. When Wedge speaks, his words drip with enthusiasm and intensity, although he’s rightfully a verbal featherweight in terms of how good the 2011 Mariners will be.

Last month at the Mariners’ annual pre-spring media briefing, Wedge talked about developing leaders in the clubhouse and making sure every player is willing to face the challenge of the season.

But will they win?

That’s the goal, but there’s a process needed to get there.

Like developing young hitters such as Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders, hoping that 2010 was a one-year blunder for veterans like Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez, finding consistent pitching behind Hernandez in the rotation and, for at least the first few weeks of the season while closer David Aardsma recovers from hip surgery, hope a hard-throwing reliever like Brandon League gets some save opportunities and is good enough to convert them.

Wedge laughed last month when asked if he knew what he’d tell the team on the first day of spring training. He’s an intense guy and he expects to see some awfully wide eyes in the room when he speaks.

“I know exactly what I’m going to say to these guys,” he said. “I’m not a notes guy, but without a doubt, they’ll know (what he expects). They’re not going to fully understand it the first day; it’s going to be too much. But that’s what we’ll work on every day.”

The process of developing a contender begins with developing young players who form the foundation of the team. That’s where the Mariners are now, although Wedge admits this team is farther along than the Indians were nearly a decade ago when he was the manager and they went young.

“We pretty much started over in ’02 and ’03,” he said. “This is not the same situation. Two reasons up here would be Ichiro (Suzuki) and Felix, and the minor league system is well on their way.”

But this year, it’s hard for me to see the Mariners making a significant jump from the 61-victory team they were last year. That’s why I’m saying 68.

I reserve the right to change that based on what happens at spring training, but I’ll say this: A lot of people already disagree with my 68-victory forecast. Some actually believe it’s way too high, and one scout believes this team might lose 110 games.

Could happen, but I have a hard time seeing a repeat of last year.

Too many things went so wrong — from the firings of manager Don Wakamatsu and most of his staff to the dugout flap with Figgins to the controversy over Ken Griffey Jr.’s mid-game nap and his abrupt retirement — that the 2011 Mariners simply can’t be so fractured.

That’s not to say I’m expecting a lot, but it would be really hard to repeat last season. And that’s something to be positive about.

Read Kirby Arnold’s blog on the Mariners at www.heraldnet.com/marinersblog and follow his Twitter updates via @kirbyarnold.