Hope you got everything you needed for Christmas.
Too bad the Seattle Mariners didn’t.
Sorry to spoil your holiday leftovers, Mariner fans, but for all the great joy brought by the signings of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, the M’s aren’t championship contenders yet.
Where’s the top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher this team needs to be a true contender? How patient must we be with kids – catcher Miguel Olivo, shortstop Jose Lopez and center fielder Jeremy Reed – anchoring the middle of the defense? Is power hitting alone enough to turn the M’s around?
Sure, the Mariners will score more runs in 2005 – it would be difficult to duplicate the nosedive this offense took in 2004 – because Sexson and Beltre will bring legitimate home-run hope that the Mariners haven’t had since Buhner and Griffey played here.
But, if the season started today …
* Are the Mariners any stronger up the middle on defense than 2004? Marginally at best, and that’s only because Rich Aurilia’s range was so poor at shortstop and Randy Winn never adapted to center field.
The Mariners will start 21-year-old Lopez at shortstop, knowing he made 10 errors in 57 games last year and that his range is adequate. Teams don’t win championships with adequate.
Olivo is a 26-year-old catcher with tremendous potential. However, in the words of former Mariner John Mabry, while talking about another young player three years ago, “Potential only means you haven’t done squat.”
The 50 games Olivo played for the Mariners last season revealed serious flaws in his defensive fundamentals. He allowed nine passed balls and threw out just seven of the 19 runners who tried to steal on him. Teams don’t win titles without solid play behind the plate.
Reed, 23, started just 14 games in center field in September, but he showed good instincts with quick breaks to the ball. (It was either that, or he just looked good after we became so accustomed to Winn’s awkward play in center). Next year, Reed must display the all-out speed needed to run down balls in the big gaps at Safeco Field and a willingness to slam into the walls without fear.
* Is this a pitching staff capable of rebounding from a horrible season, when the top winner (Ron Villone at 8-6) spent most of the year as a reliever?
Only if 42-year-old Jamie Moyer has more left in his tank than he showed with a 7-13 season in 2004.
Only if Joel Pineiro’s strained right elbow has fully recovered and he can resume his strides to becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Only if Gil Meche’s confidence truly has turned a corner, as it seemed late in 2004 after he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.
Only if Eddie Guardado’s torn rotator cuff has healed enough to validate not only his decision to avoid surgery, but the Mariners’ faith that he’s their closer for 2005.
Only if reliever Shigetoshi Hasegawa can reclaim his emotional fire, not to mention some movement on his sinker.
Only if one or more of the young pitchers – lefties Matt Thornton and George Sherrill, and right-hander J.J. Putz – can become true late-inning stoppers.
* Will seasoned players like Sexson and Beltre, along with veterans Bret Boone, Ichiro Suzuki and Randy Winn, provide enough stability to overcome the expected ups and downs of youth from Olivo, Reed and Lopez?
Maybe the kids will step up and play well on a consistent basis, although logic says 2005 will be a season of growth. Along with that come growing pains.
* Will Sexson and Beltre actually deliver as advertised?
Remember, Sexson is coming off a serious left shoulder injury. He won’t truly know how strong it is until he torques on it with a checked swing – the move that ripped out that shoulder last year.
Beltre will suffer through an awkward adjustment period as he figures out American League pitching. The Mariners had better hope it doesn’t last for the duration of his time here (see Jeff Cirillo, Rich Aurilia).
* And despite the addition of power that was so necessary, can this team play the small-ball style – advancing runners with bunts and hit-and-runs, steals and the willingness to hit behind runners – that is so necessary in Safeco Field?
To do that, the Mariners must put the ball in play, although it appears that along with power they’ve also added strikeouts. Sexson fanned 151 times in 2003 (his last complete season), Boone whiffed 135 times in 2004 and Olivo 55 times in just 160 at-bats after coming in a midseason trade.
There’s more to baseball than a home-run trot. When the Mariners made their playoff runs in 2000 and 2001, they needed speed, defense and pitching to carry them.
“Hitting slumps. Pitching and defense doesn’t,” said Larry Bowa, the third-base coach in 2000.
When the Mariners’ offense slumps in 2005, will the pitching and defense remain strong enough to back it up?
There are 52 days before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, plenty of time for the Mariners to answer some remaining questions.
Kirby Arnold covers the Mariners
for The Herald.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
