This is maybe the hardest division to handicap. Detroit is the only team that can’t win it; you can easily make a case for each of the other three teams. Also, with Brett Favre, Jay Cutler and the No. 1 draft pick in Matthew Stafford, the drama in this division is unmatched.
The story lines are well known: Brett Favre is back in Minnesota, which has riled up a certain state to the east; Jay Cutler mutineed in Denver and is now the darling of Chicago; the Packers are switching to a 3-4 defense … and, oh yeah, there’s the Favre thing.
Two, maybe all three, of these teams will make the playoffs. But who will win the division? The Vikings’ move to bring in Favre reeks of desperation, which I don’t like. Chicago seems like a team that may get off to a slow start as it adjusts to Cutler and a more offensive approach. For those two reasons I like Green Bay to win the division. They were a solid squad last season that got a number of bad breaks, from injuries to just horrible bounces. Expect some of that to turn around and Aaron Rodgers to break out in a big way — as long as he can remain healthy.
Let’s break it all down:
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Star: Aaron Rodgers, QB
In his first full season as a starter, Rodgers was a remarkable success. Not only did he throw 28 touchdowns, but he ran in four scores, the most by a quarterback last season. He eclipsed 4,000 yards passing and 200 rushing and he was likely drafted after the 10th round in fantasy draft. That’s a guy who can win your league for you. Will he do it all again? Likely not, but I’d expect 3,800/26/200/2 and you can’t argue with that. His injury history is a red flag, but I’d love to have him on my team.
Quick thoughts
Ryan Grant, RB: Won’t catch a lot of passes, but he’ll score more and he comes cheap.
Greg Jennings, WR: Should have mirror season and many are forgetting him. Don’t be that guy.
Donald Driver, WR: On downward trend, tops out at 70/1,000/6
Donald Lee, TE: Jermichael Finley cutting into playing time, catches. Avoid.
Jermichael Finley, TE: Sleeper guy to watch.
Packers D: Big play defense should be much improved. Grab it.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Star: Adrian Peterson, RB
No-brainer here. Peterson is obviously the go-to guy in this offense and he should benefit from Brett Favre’s arrival. Unless he gets hurt, a distinct possibility, he’ll lead the league in rushing and will lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs. His expectations are so high that I’ve heard some people complain his 10 touchdowns last year wasn’t enough. What was lacking from Peterson was the catches. If he can grab 10 more receptions this season and cross the goalline a few more times he’ll be worth the No. 1 pick. Expect it.
Quick thoughts
Brett Favre, QB: Will throw fair share of touchdowns … and interceptions. Last-round flyer.
Chester Taylor, RB: Not a terrible handcuff.
Bernard Berrian, WR: If Favre can go deep, Berrian will top 1,200/9 and a number of long-distance touchdown streaks
Percy Harvin, WR: Big-play threat out of Wildcat and not. This year’s DeSean Jackson? Maybe.
Visanthe Shiancoe, TE: Solid option made better with Favre’s arrival
Vikings D: Plenty of sacks, not a lot of turnovers/TDs
CHICAGO BEARS
Star: Greg Olsen, TE
With Jay Cutler tossing the rock in Chicago now, the Bears will score more points through the air and somebody has to benefit from that. I believe it’ll be second-year tight end Greg Olsen. He’s a play-making tight end who went for 574 and five scores last season, and doubling that isn’t out of the question. He’s got sleeper buzz, though, so you’ll likely have to grab him sooner rather than later if you want him.
Quick thoughts
Jay Cutler, QB: Don’t expect mile-high numbers, but 3,600/26 isn’t out of the question.
Matt Forte, RB: Receiving numbers will decline and Kevin Jones may eat into playing time. 1,500/10 are numbers not to scoff at though.
Devin Hester, WR: A lot of room for improvement. Could be big-play threat or big dud — likely somewhere in between.
Earl Bennett, WR: Will be possession guy in this offense, topping out at 900/7
Desmond Clark, TE: Olsen’s the guy here; Clark may catch a couple of junk TDs.
Bears D: Some guys have lost a step here, but still a unit that picks up sacks, turnovers in bunches.
DETROIT LIONS
Star: Calvin Johnson, WR
With three stiffs playing quarterback last season, Johnson put up 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns. Whether it’s Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford — or a sprinkling of both — expect Johnson to do more; he’s just too big and strong and he’s all they’ve got. Johnson will likely eclipse 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns and may be hitting his stride during the fantasy playoffs when Stafford is getting comfortable. He’s a great pick early in the second round.
Quick thoughts
Matthew Stafford, QB: Even though he’s got Johnson he just can’t put up good enough numbers for anything but a dynasty pick.
Kevin Smith, RB: The Lions will ride him; expect 1,500 total/10
Bryant Johnson, WR: Lions D: Avoid
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