University of Washington football coach Tyrone Willingham says it’s not time to start looking at bowl scenarios, but for the sake of argument, I’ll humbly disagree.
The stretch drive is upon us, with most of the teams in the Pacific-10 Conference having four conference games remaining (USC, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State have five left). And the only thing that’s clear is that the bowl picture is anything but clear.
California and USC are clearly the two best teams in the league and should claim the top two bowl games tied to the Pac-10: the Rose Bowl and Holiday Bowl. But six other teams have between four and five wins, meaning there will be a tremendous scramble over the last several weeks to see who is going where, and who is staying home.
Here’s our best guess on who is bowl bound and who will be left out.
The Pac-10 championship – and a spot in the Rose Bowl – will come down to the Nov. 18 game between the Trojans and the Golden Bears. Cal is everyone’s favorite, but I’m not convinced. It’s a very good team, but I still give the edge to USC, which I think goes undefeated through the regular season. The young Trojans will continue to get better every week and will be Rose Bowl-bound.
Cal could slip into another Bowl Championship Series (BCS) game despite a loss to the Trojans, but I don’t think that will happen. In fact, I don’t think USC will be the only Pac-10 team Cal loses to. I don’t know why, but I think the Bears will be upset, most likely against a tough UCLA defense. Still, a 7-2 conference record will be enough to send Cal to San Diego and the Holiday Bowl.
Then comes the madness.
Oregon was upset by Washington State last week, but I still think the Ducks are solid. Their offense is dangerous, and while the defense isn’t great, it’s good enough. And Oregon has perhaps the weakest remaining schedule among the contenders. To me, that’s enough to send the Ducks to the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.
People are down on Arizona State, a team I thought was going to be really, really good. But what people forget is that the Sun Devils played Cal, Oregon and USC on back-to-back-to-back weekends. What that means is that ASU has the best three teams in the league out of the way. Yes, there are three road games among the final five, but something is telling me the Sun Devils are ready to roll. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win their last five and go to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Washington State has been better than I expected and needs only one win to reach six and become eligible. But the Cougars have two tough road games and will face a highly motivated Washington team in the Apple Cup. I have a feeling WSU splits its last four and finishes fifth, heading to San Francisco for the Emerald Bowl.
The last slot is going to come down to three teams: Washington, UCLA and Oregon State. By upsetting Washington, the Beavers have set themselves up pretty well, but I still don’t think they’re very good. And with USC, Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA still left to play, I think OSU falls out of it.
Which brings us to Washington and UCLA. The Bruins have a really tough schedule left, with WSU, Cal, ASU and USC still to come. I think UCLA is going to stun Cal, but I also think the Bruins are going to finish poorly, and that won’t look good. Washington’s schedule is no picnic either, but at least there is winless Stanford at home. I think things will come down to the Apple Cup for the Huskies, and I think they win that game.
That would leave UCLA and Washington both at 4-5 in the Pac-10 and 6-6 overall. Which means it would be the Hawaii Bowl’s choice. If it comes to that, I think circumstances favor the Huskies. Yes, UCLA would have a win over Cal, but Washington nearly beat the Bears and Trojans on the road, beat UCLA, finished with a win and has a program on the rise with a recognizable coach. That’s got to count for something, and I think it’s enough to send the UW to the islands for Christmas.
And, boy, do I hope that scenario plays out.
Mike Allende is The Herald’s college football writer. His blog can be read at www.heraldnet.com/huskies.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
