INDIANAPOLIS — Pole Day qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 is the ultimate guessing game.
With six hours of track time scheduled Saturday, when do you use one or more of your three chances to earn a spot up front for the May 24 race?
“Until we see what the weather is tomorrow, we don’t make a decision,” said Roger Penske, whose team has won 14 poles and 14 races, both records at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
“You have to see where you are in (the qualifying) line, what the competitors … you have to beat are going to do and where are they in the line,” Penske added Friday before the day’s practice began. “Do you go out when it’s warm? Is it going to be cooler later? Is it going to rain? You have lots of variables.”
Thirty-one cars that have been on track this week will be eligible to take a run at the $100,000 pole on Saturday, the first of four days of time trials to fill the 33-car field.
The pole-winning driver will be the one who can put together the best four-lap average on the historic 2.5-mile oval.
Penske has three shots at adding a 15th pole, with two-time pole-winner and two-time race-winner Helio Castroneves, Ryan Briscoe and Will Power.
To do it, they will have to overcome more than nerves and changing track conditions. The National Weather Service forecast was calling for winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph.
The last time Castroneves won the pole was in 2007, he managed to beat out Andretti Green Racing’s Tony Kanaan despite having to deal with gusts up to 45 mph.
“You’ve got to analyze what’s going on in that situation and you just got to take (it) step by step,” Castroneves said.
The wind was negligible on “Fast Friday,” but Castroneves, among the fastest competitors in practice, said it was still important to get as much track time as possible to prepare for qualifying.
“You always learn something, even if sometimes you’re not changing anything in the car,” the Brazilian driver said. “The track changes itself and you’re about learning that day.
“Whatever happens, you’ve got to follow what your instincts and the track is telling you to do. So, (you’ve) got to wait and see tomorrow. All we can do today is continue working a little bit on speed and see what happens.”
With so much track time there was nearly constant action on the track, with all 31 cars over 218 mph and some inevitable mishaps.
Rookie Robert Doornbos and former pole-winner Scott Sharp both crashed in single-car incidents. Both were immediately cleared by the speedway medical staff to drive but will have to move to backup cars.
By mid-afternoon, Briscoe and Castroneves were on top of the speed chart with laps of 225.981 and 225.438, respectively.
Close behind were Target Chip Ganassi Racing teammates Dario Franchitti (224.984) and Scott Dixon (224.822), winners of the last two Indy 500s.
Danica Patrick (224.755) and Marco Andretti (224.724), teammates for Andretti Green Racing, were next, followed by 2005 Indy winner Dan Wheldon (224.357), in his first season driving for Panther Racing.
Power, in only his second 500 and first for Penske Racing, was 13th at 223.737.
“You know, yesterday we ran very safe and just got some confidence in the car, and I’m just taking little step,” said Power, who is being mentored by four-time Indy winner and longtime Penske driver coach Rick Mears.
“Rick has been a huge help,” the Australian driver said. “I think he’ll be there all month and we’re looking for a good result at the end, not at the beginning.”
Castroneves, who has started second, first and fourth here the last three years, said he may not be as patient as his new teammate.
“It’s hard to predict,” Castroneves said. “With the rules (allowing) three attempts, no question it creates more competition. It gives you sometimes a little more edge to try to squeeze a little bit more, a little more speed into the car.
“But Roger and (team president Tim) Cindric, we always talk before (about) what are our chances. We never take unnecessary chances. We always know what we need to do. It isn’t like a secret. You just have to feel it.”
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