We’re down the final 16 teams in each Washington football classification, and in three weeks, six state champions will be crowned.
Area teams Lake Stevens (4A), Arlington (4A) and Archbishop Murphy (2A) will all play home games, while 3A teams Monroe and Stanwood will hit the road as each attempts to reach a quarterfinal.
Who will win?
We’ll give our best educated guesses. As KRKO Radio’s Tom Lafferty jokes when he’s announcing pizza box tosses and mascot races during Everett AquaSox baseball games, “No wagering.”
Lafferty has some ground to make up in The Daily Herald’s Prep Picks. His record stands at 139-44 — an impressive winning percentage of 76 percent. That’s good enough for third place on our three-member panel, however. Prep Sports Weekly Co-host Steve Willits sits at 146-38, a half-game behind my record of 146-37.
The Round of 32 featured some blowouts, but the Round of 16 is always hard to predict. Common opponents are rare. The video out there sometimes looks like games shown on my grandparents’ 1970s 13-inch black and white TV. Players’ size and speed are embellished in some cases and diminished in others. That’s the beauty of high school football. You don’t know until you know.
Oh, but we know.
Here’s what we believe will happen.
— — — — — —
Mead (9-1) at Lake Stevens (7-3)
Where: Lake Stevens H.S.
When: 2 p.m. Saturday
Who: The 11th-seeded Panthers, from Spokane, will make the long trek to visit the No. 6 Vikings.
Notes: The words “two-time defending state champions” follow the Vikings wherever they go this season. They’ve lost three games in 2024, but not all 7-3 records are created equally. Lake Stevens schedules big games for its nonconference schedule and that resulted in a season-opening 31-28 overtime loss to No. 2 Sumner followed by a 31-21 loss to 3A No. 1 Bellevue for an 0-2 start. The third loss came at No. 8 Arlington in the season finale.
The picks: Lafferty and Willits are going with Lake Stevens, and I agree: 27-17 Vikings.
Arlington players celebrate Kaid Hunter’s touchdown during the game against Lake Stevens on Friday, Nov. 1, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Graham-Kapowsin (7-3) at Arlington (9-1)
Where: John C. Larson Stadium, Arlington
When: 1 p.m. Saturday
Who: A lot of Eagles. No. 9 Eagles from Graham, about 20 miles southeast of Tacoma, visit the No. 8 Eagles of Arlington.
Broadcast: KRKO Radio
Notes: Arlington moved up to 4A this season and put itself on the the map with a 28-14 win over Lake Stevens during the final week of the regular season. G-K, much like Lake Stevens, loaded up with a tough schedule and started 0-2. Graham-Kapowsin lost to Lake Stevens in the 2022 semifinals and the championship game last season. It seems that Arlington, the Wesco 4A co-champs with a win over Lake, earned a better seed than No. 8 handed out by the committee. This is a tough matchup against a program with playoff experience.
The picks: Lafferty and Willits are going with Arlington, but I’ll fly with the Eagles from the south in what could be the best game of the weekend, 31-30.
Monroe’s Aaron Clifton runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown during the game against Shorecrest on Friday, Oct. 18, 2024 in Shoreline, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Monroe (9-1) at Eastside Catholic (8-1)
Where: Eastside Catholic H.S.
When: 3 p.m. Saturday
Who: The No. 14 Bearcats will visit the No. 3 Crusaders.
Notes: The Bearcats won every game except for one — a loss to Class 4A No. 1 Camas — and receive the No. 14 seed? That’s some pretty hefty disrespect by the seeding committee.
Picks: Lafferty and Willits are once again in lockstep with their Eastside Catholic picks, and I’ll pile on some more disrespect here: Crusaders, 41-28
Stanwood’s Ethan Burke runs the ball during the Stilly Cup game against Arlington on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024 in Stanwood, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Stanwood (6-3) at Bellevue (9-0)
Where: Bellevue H.S.
When: Noon Saturday
Who: The No. 16 Spartans will travel to the No. 1 Wolverines:
Notes: The Spartans surprised many by upending Evergreen (Vancouver) in the Round of 32. Bellevue has held six opponents to single digits, and their season low in points scored was 31 against Class 4A Lake Stevens.
Picks: Lafferty and Willits aren’t brave enough to call the upset, and neither am I: 42-7, Bellevue
Archbishop Murphy senior running back Jevin Madison runs with the football during the Archbishop Murphy-Lakewood football game at Lakewood High School on Sept. 6, 2024. The Wildcats won 48-24. (Taras McCurdie / The Herald)
Orting (9-1) at Archbishop Murphy (8-1)
Where: Goddard Stadium (Mariner H.S.)
When: 1 p.m. Saturday
Who: The No. 12 Cardinals from Orting, about 20 miles southeast of Tacoma, will visit the No. 5 Wildcats.
Notes: Another questionable placement by the seeding committee, as Archbishop Murphy beat No. 2 Anacortes and lost at No. 4 Lynden by just four points. The Wildcats demolished their other seven opponents by a combined score of 363-95.
Picks: Lafferty and Willits are going with the home team here, and although I hate to disrespect my grandfather’s alma mater, I’ve got the Wildcats, 48-13.
King’s (7-3) at Life Christian (8-1)
Where: Harry Lang Stadium
When: 2 p.m. Saturday
Who: The No. 10 Knights travel to face the No. 7 Eagles from Tacoma.
Notes: King’s has won seven straight after opening the season with losses to Orting (No. 12 in 2A), Cascade Christian (No. 9) and Nooksack Valley (No. 5).
Picks: Lafferty and Willits are split on this one, with Lafferty picking the Knights on the road. While rolling with Lafferty might not be my best strategy, I’ve got Knights winning 31-15.
Full state playoff brackets can be found here.
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