SERIES HISTORY
This is the 35th regular-season meeting between the Seahawks and 49ers. Seattle leads the series 19-15 and the Seahawks have dominated in recent seasons, winning six of the previous seven matchups. Seattle swept the series last season, prevailing 20-3 when the teams met in San Francisco and 29-13 when they played in Seattle. The Seahawks also have won four straight at home against the 49ers, with Seattle’s last loss to San Francisco at CenturyLink Field being a 19-17 defeat in 2011.
KEY MATCHUP
The Seahawks’ run game vs. the 49ers’ run defense
Seattle prides itself on its ability to move the ball on the ground. Since 2012 the Seahawks have run the ball more than any other team in the NFL, and they’ve done so successfully. Last season, despite the constant turnover at running back because of injuries, Seattle averaged 141.8 yards rushing per game, which ranked third in the league, and the Seahawks gained 4.5 yards per attempt, which ranked seventh.
However, that success has yet to translate to 2016. Through two games Seattle has averaged just 89.5 yards rushing per game, and the trend is downward as the Seahawks managed just 67 yards on 24 carries Sunday in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle has turned to the two-headed monster of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael to replace the retired Marshawn Lynch, and although Michael has done his part with 126 yards on 25 carries, Rawls has yet to repeat last season’s success as he’s been limited to 25 yards on 19 carries. Rawls’ health is also in question. Not only is he coming off the ankle injury that ended his 2015 and limited him in the preseason, he’s now carrying a bruised shin that kept him out of the second half against the Rams.
The Seahawks’ run game has been hampered by an offensive line that Seattle coach Pete Carroll has acknowledged needs to do better in run blocking — according to research done by ESPN, Seahawks runners were hit behind the line of scrimmage 62 percent of the time against Los Angeles. The Seahawks’ run game also has been affected by quarterback Russell Wilson’s sprained ankle, which has largely removed the speedy Wilson as a running threat. The result has been a paltry average of 3.2 yards per rush.
Are the 49ers the type of opponent the Seahawks can exploit to get back on track running the ball? That’s a mystery. San Francisco has a new coaching staff under Chip Kelly, and the first two weeks brought mixed results against the run. The 49ers shut down the Rams and reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Todd Gurley in their opener, holding Los Angeles to 65 yards rushing in a 28-0 victory. But last week San Francisco was steamrolled by Carolina as the Panthers racked up 176 yards on the ground, including 100 from the unheralded Fozzy Whittaker in a 46-27 loss.
If Seattle is to kick start an offense that’s scored just 15 points through eight quarters, it’ll have to start with re-igniting the run game.
KEY NUMBER
1 The total number of touchdowns scored by the Seahawks through the first two games of the season. It’s the fewest Seattle has scored in its first two games since being held without a TD in its first two games in 2001.
IMPORTANT INJURIES
Seahawks — Seattle likely will be without running back Thomas Rawls (shin). The Seahawks hope he will be able to play, but are preparing as if he won’t. He’s listed as doubtful along with guard Germain Ifedi (ankle) and tight end Nick Vannett (ankle), who aren’t expected to play. Receiver Tyler Lockett (knee) and running back C.J. Prosise (wrist) are both listed as questionable, but both made it through practice this week and should play.
49ers — San Francisco comes into the game largely healthy. Tackle Anthony Davis (concussion) is out and safeties Marcus Cromartie (ankle) and Jaquiski Tartt (knee) are questionable, but all three are backups. Defensive tackle Mike Purcell (ankle), who was limited in practice during the week, was not listed on the final injury report.
BREAK IT DOWN
The Seahawks will win if they …
Have a healthier Russell Wilson. Seattle’s quarterback played through his sprained ankle last week against Los Angeles, and although he wasn’t bad, he was less mobile than usual and it limited his effectiveness. Wilson came out of that game without suffering further damage and said the ankle continues to improve. A healthier Wilson gives the Seahawks far more options on offense.
Create turnovers. As well as Seattle’s defense played in the first two games in terms of limiting points and yardage, the Seahawks were unable to force any turnovers. If the Seahawks can create some turnovers, they can change the field-position battle — Seattle’s average start position for drives against the Rams was its own 17-yard line — thereby giving the offense some short fields to work with.
Avoid critical penalties. The Seahawks were whistled for 10 penalties for 114 yards last week against Los Angeles. Not only was that a large amount, the penalties came at critical times, which in a close game had a profound effect. Eliminating those penalties will help Seattle maintain momentum on both offense and defense.
The 49ers will win if they …
Get a better performance out of Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, who beat out Colin Kaepernick for the 49ers’ starting quarterback position, has been underwhelming so far this season. However, he found some effectiveness as a passer in his one start against Seattle last season, and he’ll also need to create some plays with his legs.
Get their tight ends involved. Time has shown that if Seattle’s defense has a weakness, it’s in defending tight ends. So far San Francisco tight ends, Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek, have combined for just five catches. They’ll need to up their production by taking advantage of the soft spots in Seattle’s zone coverage.
Defend like they did in Week 1 rather than Week 2. It was a tale of two games for San Francisco’s defense, as the 49ers allowed just 185 yards and no points in their opener against Los Angeles, but allowed 529 yards and 46 points in the follow-up at Carolina. Needless to say, San Francisco needs those numbers to be closer to Week 1 than Week 2.
PICK
Seahawks 19, 49ers 13
No, the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been good so far this season. But Seattle’s defense has been as solid as ever and won’t be afraid of a Chip Kelly offense — the Seahawks stuffed Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles in 2014, holding them to 139 yards of total offense. Seattle will be back at home, Wilson’s ankle is improving, and the Seahawks still have the memories of last year’s second-half offensive explosion fresh in their minds. The point production has to follow eventually.
Nick Patterson. Herald Writer
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