SERIES HISTORY
It’s time for Seattle’s annual game against honorary NFC West member Carolina, as this is the fifth straight season the Seahawks and Panthers play one another, and when playoff games are added it’s the seventh meeting between the two teams the past five years. Overall Seattle holds a 5-3 lead in the regular season and a 2-1 lead in the playoffs. But last year the Panthers won both meetings between the teams. First, Carolina stunned Seattle 27-23 during the regular season at CenturyLink Field, scoring 13 points in the final four minutes to pull off the comeback win. Then in the playoffs the Panthers raced to a 31-point halftime lead in Charlotte before holding on to win 31-24 on their way to the NFC championship.
KEY MATCHUP
The Seahawks’ offensive line versus the Panthers’ offensive line
Sunday’s game likely hinges on which team’s offensive line performs better. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say which team’s offensive line doesn’t perform worse.
Seattle is coming off a 14-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which its offensive line had its poorest performance of the season. The Seahawks began the game with turmoil as starting center Justin Britt, who’s been the team’s best offensive lineman this season, didn’t play because of an ankle injury. That meant Seattle started three rookies on the offensive line in center Joey Hunt, right guard Germain Ifedi and left tackle George Fant. Then after the first series right tackle Garry Gilliam was benched in favor of Bradley Sowell. The overall effect was that quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked a season-high six times and under pressure throughout the game, this against a Tampa Bay defense that’s not know for its pass rush. Overall Seattle managed just 245 yards of total offense, the fewest in a game this season, and the offense failed to score a touchdown for the third time.
Things aren’t any better on Carolina’s side. This week Panthers coach Ron Rivera described the Carolina’s situation on the offensive line as a “catastrophe” because of the injuries suffered. Five-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil is on injured reserve because of a shoulder injury, while left tackle Michael Oher is on IR because of a concussion. Backups Gino Gradkowski (knee) and Daryl Williams (ankle) are also out. That’s forced all kinds of shuffling, with right tackle Mike Remmers having to switch to left tackle, and right guard Trai Turner having to move to right tackle. The current starting center is fourth-stringer Tyler Larsen, who was on the practice squad when November began. The only projected starter on the offensive line who will likely be playing the same position come Sunday is left guard Andrew Norwell.
The issues on the line no doubt are a big part of the reason why both Carolina, which has dropped to 4-7 after going 15-1 last season, and Seattle are scoring six points fewer per game this season compared to last season.
Britt is expected to be back this week, so the Seahawks’ struggles last Sunday may end up being just a one-off. But both teams will be hoping for drastic improvements on the line this week.
KEY NUMBER
69.0 Carolina quarterback Cam Newton’s career passer rating in four regular season games against Seattle. Newton’s career passer rating is 87.5. However, Newton has played better against the Seahawks in the playoffs, compiling a 90.2 rating in two contests, including a 108.3 mark in last season’s playoff encounter.
IMPORTANT INJURIES
Seahawks — Seattle is getting healthy on defense as free safety Earl Thomas (hamstring) and cornerback DeShawn Shead (hamstring) are set to return after missing one game. Defensive end Michael Bennett (knee) is also likely to return, while linebacker Mike Morgan (groin) has been activated from injured reserve. Meanwhile on offense, center Justin Britt (ankle) is also expected back. Running back C.J. Prosise (shoulder) remains out, while tight end Luke Willson (knee) is questionable.
Panthers — Carolina will be without All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion), who wasn’t able to make it back this week, as well as starting safety Kurt Coleman (concussion). On the offensive line, in addition to center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) and tackle Michael Oher (concussion) being on injured reserve, the Panthers will also play without tackle Daryl Williams (ankle) this week.
BREAK IT DOWN
The Seahawks will win if they …
Start faster. Seattle coach Pete Carroll has always stressed that it’s not about how a team starts, but about how it finishes. However, the Seahawks have endured some sluggish starts this season, none worse than last week against Tampa Bay when Seattle found itself trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. The Seahawks need to be better out of the gate to avoid putting themselves in too deep a hole.
Receive a bounce-back performance from quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson was the subject of constant pressure against Tampa Bay, and he unsurprisingly had his worst game of the season with a rating of 38.8. But historically Wilson is adept at dealing with pressure, and he faces a Carolina pass defense — which no longer has the services of standout cornerback Josh Norman — that ranks 29th in the league.
Convert on third down. Seattle was abysmal on third down last week, going 1-for-11 with the only conversion coming late in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have had issues on third down all season long, ranking 25th in the league at 35.0 percent. Part of that is putting themselves constantly into third-and-long, so shortening the distance required on third down should help the success rate.
The Panthers will win if they …
Have quarterback Cam Newton return to his MVP form. Newton, who is the NFL’s reigning Most Valuable Player, is having a 2016 that bears little resemblance to his stellar 2015 — his 81.4 passer rating ranks 26th among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. The Panthers desperately need Newton back in his Superman mode, when he’s able to shred defenses with both his arm and his legs.
Reverse their turnover numbers. A big part of Carolina’s success last season was its ability to win the turnover battle, as the Panthers led the league in turnover margin at plus-20. It’s been a different story this season as Carolina is sporting a minus-5 turnover margin, which is tied for 23rd in the league. The Panthers are trending the right direction, going plus-3 in their past five games, and they need that trend to continue.
Show they can win a close one. Though Carolina is 4-7, it’s not like the Panthers are getting blown out. Carolina’s seven defeats have been by a combined 41 points, and their past four losses were each by three points. If Seattle’s offense shows any signs of continuing its stall, the opportunity will be there for the Panthers to steal it late like they did last season, and Carolina will have to seize that opportunity.
PICK
Seahawks 16, Panthers 10
Seattle and Carolina have played one another often the past five years, and those games always seem to be close. Both teams come into this one with concerning issues, as the Seahawks are coming off their worst offensive game of the season and the Panthers are still trying to shrug off the hangover from last season’s Super Bowl loss. But Seattle getting its defense back to full strength, particularly with Michael Bennett returning to face a Carolina offensive line in turmoil, should be enough to pull the Seahawks through.
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