CHENEY – In a world where long-term contracts have as much fiscal reality as a mid-1990s dotcom, Shaun Alexander is one of the few who believes his Monopoly money will one day turn green.
The Seattle Seahawks’ Pro Bowl running back and the reigning league MVP, Alexander signed an eight-year, $64 million contract in February. The deal included more than $15 million in guaranteed money and a boatload of bills that aren’t expected to ever land in his savings account.
After all, who seriously expects Alexander to still be playing at the end of the deal, when he’ll be 37 years old?
Uh, that would be Alexander himself.
“I just thought to myself that I wanted to be in Seattle until I retired,” the soon-to-be-29-year-old said when asked why he signed an eight-year deal. “I thought, when will I retire? Oh, probably about eight years. I thought: We’re close, I really like the team and the city, so let’s stay here and try to win a bunch of Super Bowls. And when it’s time for me to go, I’ll ride off into the sunset.”
History, not to mention Alexander’s back-loaded contract, would show that his odds of still being with the Seahawks in 2013 are pretty bleak.
In fact, a study done by The Herald last spring showed that, historically speaking, Alexander’s production might start to fall off in the near future.
The study of all 17 halfbacks currently in the Hall of Fame showed an average 952.6 yards per season before their 29th birthdays, as compared to 623.9 yards per season thereafter. Of that group, just seven recorded a 1,000-yard season after turning 29. Only Tony Dorsett, Walter Payton, John Riggins and Barry Sanders had multiple 1,000-yard seasons after the age of 29.
Seahawks running backs coach Stump Mitchell said Alexander, who turns 29 at the end of this month, can follow that group in terms of getting better with age.
“A lot of those running backs took a lot more punishment than Shaun has,” Mitchell said. “He’s been very productive, but he’s been blessed to be healthy.
“And Shaun’s really a two-down back. He’s a first- and second-down back, and then he’s out of the game on third down. He’s done a tremendous job of breaking tackles and being successful when he’s on the football field.”
Despite a total of 1,717 career carries, including a league-high 1,049 over the past three seasons, Alexander says his body has never felt better. He learned early in his NFL career how to avoid big hits and has found a way to stay relatively injury-free during his first six NFL seasons.
“Having (former Seahawk) Ricky (Watters) around, and having Stump Mitchell around – he’s the best assistant coach in football – those two taught me how to play the game,” Alexander said. “I learned how to run and win in the fourth quarter. I learned how to win in the 11th through 16th game of the season.
“Being dominant early in the game and not being able to finish in the fourth quarter, you defeat the purpose.”
Asked whether that strategy included running out of bounds or falling down instead of being involved in a collision – both were areas that led to public criticism early in Alexander’s career – the running back denied that he ever took a fall.
“I think, at times, (coach) Mike (Holmgren) made statements,” Alexander said earlier this week, “and then we watched on film and he was like: ‘No, that’s not what happened.’ He’d be like, ‘Oh, yeah, there’s a guy right there. If you run into him, you get no yards. You cut to the right, you get one yard.’
“Mike and I laugh about it. He would say it, then go back and watch the film and apologize to me: ‘Oh, Shaun, I see what you’re saying. You were right.’”
The critics of Alexander’s running style are mostly silent now, and many of them appreciate his ability to stay healthy.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s still got eight years left.
If Alexander’s prognostication is on target, the Seahawks’ salary cap would be in trouble. He’s slated to make a combined total of just over $3 million in base salary the next two years, then his base reportedly jumps to $4.48 million in 2008, $5.56 million in 2009, $6.65 million in 2010, $7.74 million in 2011, $8.8 million in 2012 and $9.9 in 2013.
In other words, Alexander will probably retire or get cut well before the end of his deal.
“I think Shaun will become old and outdated before the offensive line,” said Mitchell, the running backs coach. “Of course, the guys who start (on the line) are talented. But the guys who are backups are also capable of performing as well.
“I think he’s definitely going to be one of the best running backs to ever play the game. Even when he retires, I think they’ll still have a pretty good offensive line with the Seahawks.”
So how long does Alexander have?
“He’s going to be productive at least five more years,” Mitchell said. “That would give him 11 years in the league, and it would put him over 164 rushing touchdowns, which is what Emmitt Smith did in (15) years. That’s a goal.
“He has to capitalize and work hard. He’s got a lot of things ahead of him. He’s just starting to really set his goals now.”
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