Tough to repeat

Amber Nickelson hears the whispers.

They chase her like so many cross country runners have the past two seasons.

She can’t win again, they say.

No one wins the state cross country meet twice.

She’s slowed down and the field is stronger this year, they cackle.

"They say, ‘Amber Nickelson has her work cut out for her,’ " said Nickelson, loosely quoting an article she read in a running magazine. "’She better start working out.’ I don’t remember what it said, exactly. I just read it and put it down."

"I don’t know. Hopefully the weather will be nice."

In truth, predicting the winner of a Class 4A cross country race is perhaps more difficult than mapping out next month’s weather patterns. Sure, it can be narrowed down to a few likely scenarios, but the final result is anyone’s guess. Nickelson hopes to become the first repeat winner in the large-school classification since 1992. She’ll attempt to hold off the competition in what many expect to be a tight 4A race at Saturday’s state cross country meet at Sun Willows Golf Course in Pasco.

Eastmont’s Amanda Miller is widely considered Nickelson’s biggest obstacle. Miller won the Class 3A race in 2001 and finished third behind Nickelson at last year’s 4A competition.

Bellarmine Prep’s Brie Felnagle, who finished second to Miller in the 800-meter race at the state track meet and beat her in the mile, will compete in her first state cross country meet. Like Snohomish’s Lucy Miller, who finished second behind Nickelson at the Northwest District meet, Felnagle played soccer last fall. Both former soccer standouts are a threat to break into the top five. Felnagle won the District 3 meet by nearly a minute.

Megan O’Reilly of Mount Spokane won the 3,200-meter race at the state track meet last spring as a freshman. She figures to be in the mix on Saturday along with Stephanie Lenihan of Davis. Lenihan beat O’Reilly in Saturday’s meet that comprised Districts 5-9.

"We know, as we did last year, that Amber is one of four or five girls in the state that can win it," Lake Stevens coach Cliff Chaffee said. "There’s some luck involved, but we’re going over to win it."

Few outside of Lake Stevens believed Nickelson would win last year. She finished 38th in the Class 3A meet as a freshman and 15th in the 2001 4A race. Snohomish’s Miller or teammate Amanda Stopa, who was one of just two freshmen to finish in the top 15 last year, are among those that could be this year’s Nickelson.

Results of district meets are difficult to compare, because no two cross country courses are alike. Even when two runners have competed head-to-head, the results can be thrown out because it may have been on a course drastically different than the one at Sun Willows.

One only needs to look at last season’s state meet as an example. Rachel Strand of King’s won the Class A/B meet. It was her only victory of the season.

Nickelson faces the added pressure of being the defending champion. Many have attempted to defend a title. Few have succeeded.

Just three girls have won consecutive titles in the largest school classification in the 26 years of official state meets. Only one girl, Sarna Renfro of Bellarmine Prep (1992 and ‘93), has accomplished the feat since Bellevue’s Patty Matava won her third straight title in 1982.

Here’s a look at Class 3A and 4A girls who over the past eight seasons won a title as an underclassman and where each finished the following season: