SAN DIEGO – One team is a fifth seed with a building national reputation and one of the nation’s best players. The other is a 12th seed that has been one of the nation’s most consistent winners over the past seven years, and will be making its seventh postseason appearance in a row.
But when Washington (24-6) and Utah State (23-8) tip off at about 7 p.m. today in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, both have reason to believe that they are the underdog.
The Aggies clearly can’t match Washington’s athleticism, have not played as difficult a schedule and, simply from a seeding standpoint, will not be favored. But 12 seeds traditionally give five seeds trouble, and the Huskies have shown that, on occasion, they can play down to an opponent.
“We’ve proven that we can beat a Gonzaga and a UCLA, but we’ve also proven we can lose to Washington State twice in a season,” Washington senior Brandon Roy said. “If you want to look over the bracket and say which team could slip up, I would say Washington too. It’s something we brought upon ourselves. But I’m picking Washington.”
Utah State has become the chic pick to be one of the Cinderella stories of the first round. The Aggies are one of five teams in the nation to have at least 23 wins in each of the last seven years, and has the fourth-best winning percentage in the nation in that time (.781). Utah State in only 1-17 in the postseason since 1971, but the win came in 2001, when, as a 12 seed, it shocked fifth seed Ohio State. The Aggies also nearly upset Kansas and held the lead at halftime against Arizona last year.
Still, Utah State coach Stew Morrill laughed when asked if he felt Washington could legitimately claim to be an underdog.
“What I find ironic is, we were one of the teams that everybody said didn’t belong,” Morrill said. “The first day after Selection Sunday, everybody was griping about that we really didn’t belong. But now we’re one of the upset specials. How does that work? If we don’t belong, how can we then be picked to upset a five? I don’t think Washington looks at us and says we’re the underdog.”
Washington coach Lorenzo Romar understands why people believe his team could be ripe for an upset. He says Washington’s loss to Oregon is fresh on people’s minds, and combine it with the fact that Utah State is a solid team, and the makings are there.
“I don’t think it’s a lack of confidence in our team,” Romar said. “What’s fresh in everyone’s mind is we just lost in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament and obviously people are forgetting about the eight previous wins in a row. …What people understand is Utah State upset Ohio State when (the Buckeyes) were a higher seed. They took Kansas to the wire and almost beat them. Utah State hasn’t backed down from being the underdog in the past.”
If athleticism rules the day, however, Washington will be the clear favorite. The Huskies, as always, will try to make the game a fast-paced affair in order to wear Utah State out. On defense, the Huskies will pressure the Aggies and try to force turnovers to get into transition. Utah State will counter that by sagging in on defense and forcing Washington to take outside shots, which means players like Ryan Appleby and Mike Jensen could play big roles. But the Aggies say that people describing them as a “slow-paced” team aren’t being accurate.
“We always get labeled as a ‘control team,’ ” Morrill said. “It amuses me. We’re always in the top three in our league in scoring. We run the break on missed shots and we try to be really aggressive.”
Utah State relies heavily on 6-foot-7 forward Nate Harris, a three-time all-league pick who averages 17.2 points and 7.5 rebounds. Guard Jaycee Carroll averages 16.1 points and is also a solid scoring option.
Of course, those numbers have mostly come against weaker competition than they will face in the Huskies.
“Their ability to get up-and-down the floor is the biggest concern,” Harris said. “That counteracts what we want to do. We have to not get caught up in playing that kind of game and make it how we want to play.”
“They’re going to stay packed in and force jump shots,” Roy said. “That’s something we’ve worked on all week: Working against the zone, working against a sagging defense, making sure we penetrate and don’t just settle for outside shots.”
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