Who will be the NCAA men’s basketball team to beat in 2011?

Now that a national champion has been crowned to cap off the 2009-10 season, the questions begin.

Who’s the favorite in 2010-11?

And, locally, where does the University of Washington fit in?

The short answer: Things might not change as much as you think.

The top of the national preseason poll is likely to feature Duke, Butler, Michigan State and Purdue — again — while UW should be in the Nos. 10 to 20 range — again.

What’s more, after what could be another down year for the Pac-10, the Huskies might have to overcome another subpar RPI ranking come tournament time.

UW and Arizona look like the teams to beat in another rebuilding year of Pac-10 action. The conference will lose its top four players — UW’s Quincy Pondexter, Stanford’s Landry Fields and Cal’s Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher — and will rely on younger players like the Huskies’ Isaiah Thomas, Arizona’s Derrick Williams and UCLA’s Tyler Honeycutt to carry the torch.

On the national scene, UW should get plenty of attention as a preseason contender. Among this year’s Sweet 16 teams, the Huskies and Xavier are the only schools that had just one senior on their rosters. But UW’s Pondexter was certainly one of the most important.

How well Thomas, Venoy Overton, Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Justin Holiday and Abdul Gaddy improve is the key to 2010-11.

The Huskies are likely to be the only Pac-10 team in a preseason Top 25 that could include plenty of the usual suspects but also a few up-and-comers. Butler and fellow mid-major Xavier could be top-10 teams, while Pitt, Florida and Mississippi look like good bets to break out as national contenders.

The national scene could change a lot over the coming weeks, as big-time players such as Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson, Butler’s Gordon Hayward, Duke’s Kyle Singler, Georgetown’s Greg Monroe and Kentucky’s John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins decide their futures. Several top incoming recruits have yet to make their college decisions, so that could change things as well.

But what is clear is that the Huskies should be in the mix again — both in the Pac-10 and the nation.

Who’s got next?

The Herald’s Scott Johnson projects how the national rankings might look heading into the 2010-11 season, with school name and projected returning starters in parentheses:

1. Michigan State (4): Healthy Kalin Lucas could be key to another Final Four run

2. Pitt (4): Young team surprised in 2009-10, but Panthers won’t sneak up again

3. Butler (4): They’re back … unless Gordon Hayward goes pro

4. Duke (2): If Kyle Singler leaves early, Blue Devils could fall out of top 25

5. Xavier (4): Slasher Jordan Crawford and big man Kenny Frease are studs

6. Ohio State (3): Evan Turner’s likely gone, but recruiting class is nation’s best

7. Florida (4): Remember these names: Chandler Parsons and Kenny Boynton

8. BYU (3): Jimmer Fredette should be a preseason All-America

9. Purdue (4): Biggest question is Robbie Hummel’s knee

10. Georgetown (4): Even if Greg Monroe goes pro, Hoyas should be a factor

11. North Carolina (4): Back-to-back recruiting classes put UNC back in the hunt

12. Illinois (5): Big Ten could be this year’s Big East