There is an age-old axiom in sports that says potential is a blessing that can quickly turn into a curse. It’s only a good thing when it blossoms into big-time results.
In baseball, there’s another P-word that can carry just as much dreaded weight — prospect. Being a prospect comes with a boom-or-bust label for the young player involved in a deal this time of year.
With the trading deadline looming, the names of prospects and players with potential are being tossed around like poker chips at a card table. For every veteran like Cliff Lee or Adam Dunn whose name comes up, there are dozens of guys like Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Wilson Ramos and Wilmer Flores who filter into the rumor mill this time of year.
And more often than not, prospects like the group that’s being bandied about this season fail to fulfill their potential.
Lee, coincidentally, is among the few names involved in deadline deals who likely will prove to be worth the wait. The left-handed pitcher, who is now being dangled by the Seattle Mariners and is widely regarded as the prized veteran available in a deadline trade, was part of a six-player deal that sent All-Star pitcher Bartolo Colon and a minor leaguer from Cleveland to Montreal in 2002. Lee, former Cascade High School star Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips were shipped to the Indians as top prospects eight years ago and two of them — Lee and Sizemore — turned that potential into production. Also shipped to Cleveland in that trade was veteran first baseman Lee Stevens.
Young, relatively unknown players with “potential” like John Smoltz, Joe Carter, Jeff Bagwell, Jeff Kent, Jay Buhner, Sammy Sosa and Jason Varitek also have become stars at the big-league level after being acquired for veterans around the annual deadline.
But more often than not, players acquired because they show potential fail to pan out.
The Philadelphia Phillies got a couple of serviceable years out of Vicente Padilla and Travis Lee, but was it really worth giving up Curt Schilling to the Diamondbacks?
Former St. Louis Cardinal farmhands T.J. Mathews, Blake Stein and Eric Ludwick combined for 30 career wins with the Oakland A’s — hardly just compensation for All-Star slugger Mark McGwire.
And the trio of Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon combined for six major league wins, or three less than David Cone had during the 17 games he started for Toronto after being acquired from the New York Mets midway through the 1995 season.
The trend goes way back, with acquisitions-turned-disappointments like Pat Zachry (from Reds to Mets) and Ernie Broglio (from Cubs to Cardinals) being traded for future Hall of Famers Tom Seaver and Lou Brock, respectively.
Some of the more recent deadline blockbusters are still waiting for verdicts. The Indians got four players from Milwaukee in the 2008 trade for pitcher C.C. Sabathia, and none of them has made much of an impact yet. Of the four players Philadelphia sent to the Indians for Lee this time last year, three are struggling mightily.
The teams most being mentioned in this year’s Lee sweepstakes are the New York Yankees, the Minnesota Twins and the New York Mets.
The Yankees have a long history of deadline deals, and their over-inflated acquisitions have generally failed to live up to expectations. Guys like Ruben Rivera, Nick Johnson, Jose Contreras and Russ Ohlendorf were built up to be the second comings of Maris, Mattingly, Guidry and Clemens — only to put up pedestrian numbers in their new cities.
The Twins haven’t been nearly as active in deadline deals, with career .254 hitter Bobby Kielty being the biggest so-called player with potential with whom they’ve parted in recent years. The Mets have traded young players such as Xavier Nady, Scott Kazmir and Justin Huber as of late.
The Mariners have been involved in some of the biggest deadline trades of all time, and with mixed results.
The 1988 deal to acquire a young Buhner from the Yankees for aging slugger Ken Phelps turned out to be one of the biggest moves in franchise history. All-time great pitchers Randy Johnson (in a 1989 trade with Montreal) and Jamie Moyer (from Boston for Darren Bragg in 1996) came to Seattle by way of in-season trades as well.
But the Mariners also have gotten burned in deadline deals, most notably in the 1997 trade that sent prospects Varitek and Derek Lowe to Boston for reliever Heathcliff Slocumb. The right-handed closer had almost as many losses (nine, in 11 decisions) as he did saves (13) while with the Mariners. Meanwhile, Varitek and Lowe were big reasons why the Red Sox ended their 86-year curse with a World Series victory in 2004.
Of course, some of the biggest deadline trades are the ones that never happen.
The historic 2001 Mariners could have added a veteran or two at the deadline but opted to stand pat — sticking to the moniker given then-GM “Standing” Pat Gillick — so they wouldn’t risk shaking up the team’s chemistry. That decision didn’t help the M’s in the postseason, when they got beat by the mighty Yankees in five games.
The 2002 Mariners also were in need of a boost, particularly on offense, and yet Gillick opted not to part with pitching prospects like Clint Nageotte, Travis Blackley and Joel Pineiro. Of that group, only Pineiro has made much of an impact at the big-league level.
A year later, when another deadline seemed poised to come and go, veteran reliever Jeff Nelson expressed his displeasure in the Mariners’ annual lack of deadline activity and was, subsequently, traded away a few days later.
This year, under second-year general manager Jack Zduriencik, the underachieving, have-not Mariners appear primed to deal to one of the major’s so-called haves. Lee is without question the most sought-after veteran, and his impending free agency makes the left-handed pitcher a prime target to move for prospects.
The question is whether or not those prospects ever amount to much. History shows that, when it comes to deadline trades, potential can be reached — but only sometimes.
While Lee is as sure a thing as the deadline has to offer, even the most highly-regarded prospect should come with a buyer-beware label.
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