Better to be lucky than good
Published 9:54 pm Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Fantasy football is for suckers.
Always has been.
You can study all the numbers; you can read all the tea leaves; you can even read this column and you’re still going to get burned half of the time. Some of this is skill, but most of it’s luck.
Just ask a Ronnie Brown owner.
My experience this weekend didn’t involve Brown, he of the five touchdowns, but rather Steve Slaton. In one of my leagues, I have Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson and Slaton. Leading up to Sunday, Peterson was questionable to play so I plugged in Johnson just to be safe. When Sunday rolled up, Peterson was announced to play, but I kept Johnson in, along with Westbrook.
You know what happened. Peterson and Johnson were both pedestrian, Westbrook was injured after five carries, and Slaton piled up 124 total yards and a touchdown.
I never even considered Slaton — and shouldn’t have. That’s why it’s luck that crowns a champion, not skill.
Let’s get to the questions:
What will be the fallout from the QB carousel?
Like Gus Frerotte a week ago, Trent Green will fill in for an underachieving quarterback. Don’t expect much more from Torry Holt (at this point he’s nothing more than a flex position guy), but the real winner here might be Randy McMichael. Green knows Al Saunders’ scheme — which uses the tight end position a lot — from his days in Kansas City, where he hooked up with Tony Gonzalez a few times. Speaking of K.C., with Damon Huard back behind center, expect the numbers of Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe to go up. In Cleveland, I expect Derek Anderson to have a big Sunday to save his job — for now.
Can Julius Jones keep up his pace?
The newly acquired running back has breathed fresh life into the Seahawks running game, having rushed for 267 yards and 2 TDs in the past two weeks. But don’t expect it to last. The Seattle running game may be better than a year ago, but with four of their next six games on the road, including three on the east coast, those numbers will come down. Throw in the return of Maurice Morris and the touchdown-vulture T.J. Duckett and you have a classic sell-high situation with Jones.
Who will benefit from all the injuries?
Mind you, all of the following recommendations are for owners either hit hard by injuries or byes. Rashard Mendenhall will get the carries in Pittsburgh, but going against a rejuvenated Baltimore defense this Sunday, don’t expect much. Saints WR Robert Meachem will benefit the most from the injuries to Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. If Brian Westbrook plays, he’ll probably only get about 15 touches, so expect Correll Buckhalter to do most of the heavy lifting Sunday against the Bears.
After three weeks, what do we know?
Well we know when a team is playing one of these teams — St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Detroit, New Orleans and Houston — points will be scored. We also know that some offenses — Cincinnati, Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit and Kansas City — have very few viable fantasy options at this point (I can think of five: Braylon Edwards; T.J. Houshmandzadeh; Steven Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Tony Gonzalez). Lastly, it looks like any player involved in the offenses for the Cowboys, Broncos and Chargers are becoming must-plays.
Who should I play this week?
Going against what I just said, play your Browns and Bengals. You can’t expect the 96-point outburst from a year ago, but even half those points means TDs for Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Chris Perry, Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Jamal Lewis. Even the much-maligned Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson will post 250 yards and a couple of scores each. If you’re desperate enough, this might be the week to roll the dice on whichever Broncos running back you own. If Huard is a go, play Gonzalez and Bowe. Bills WR Josh Reed has come on recently, and with Roscoe Parrish out and Buffalo taking on St. Louis Sunday, Reed could be a sneaky play.
Contact Aaron Swaney at aswaney@heraldnet.com. For more fantasy news, links and more, check out cmg-northwest2.go-vip.net/heraldnet/realitybites.
