The USMNT has fans dreaming of deep World Cup run
Published 9:45 am Monday, June 22, 2026
If you’re an American fan and you don’t know what to do with yourself right now, it’s understandable. The United States men’s national team has never been in this spot before.
The USMNT beat Australia 2-0 on Friday for its second straight win at the 2026 World Cup. In both wins, the Americans got an early lead and were up by multiple goals at halftime.
It’s the first time since 1930 (the first World Cup) that the U.S. has won two games in a row in the competition. It’s only the third time the U.S. has won its group (1930, 2010). They’ve also never won a group with a game to spare before.
So, now that the U.S. has secured its spot in the knockout stage as group winner, how far can this team go? While Zlatan Ibrahimović is on TV saying he thinks this team can win the World Cup, the odds say that’s still a long shot chance (note he said “can”, not “will”). It’s not as long as it used to be, though.
The Americans are currently listed at 28-to-1 (implied odds of 3.45 percent) to win the World Cup on BetMGM, 33-to-1 on FanDuel and 35-to-1 on DraftKings. That puts the U.S. among the top 11 teams on the title oddsboard. That’s also a massive move from 60-to-1 on FD and DK and 40-to-1 on BetMGM from when the tournament started.
Ok, so winning the World Cup is still a bit of an outlandish idea. What about a deep run?
Let’s start with a spot in the last 16. This is familiar territory for the U.S., as the Americans have made it to this stage five times since 1994 and in three of the last four World Cups.
A spot in the last 16 is priced at -265 on DK and -260 on FD, implying a roughly 72 percent chance. That’s a big step up from the roughly 50-50 proposition it was priced at before play began.
The quarterfinals are more rarefied air for the U.S. The Americans last made it in 2002, which is the last time the U.S. won two games at a World Cup. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1930.
A quarterfinal berth is still not expected, but the odds give the Americans a decent chance at +120 on DK and +135 on FD, implying a 40-45 percent probability.
What about the semifinals? This would be unprecedented in the modern era of American soccer. Only the 1930 team made it this far, and that group only had to win two games, both in group play, to make the final four from what was a 13-team field.
This is where the story turns into a bit of a fantasy, both in that, if it were to happen, it would feel surreal, and in that the odds say it’s a long shot. The U.S. currently sits at +450 on DK and +500 for a semifinal run.
Take it one step further, and we’re talking about a Hollywood story that would certainly lead to movies being made. The U.S. men have never made a World Cup final. There aren’t many true surprise finalists in the history of the tournament. Croatia’s run in 2018, even though the team had some top-level talent, was a shock considering the team was ranked 20th entering the tournament and has a population under four million. Sweden also made a surprise run to the final in 1958 as host.
The sportsbooks are giving the U.S. a 14-to-1 chance for the Cinderella story to make it all the way to MetLife Stadium on July 19.
While the current picture is a lot rosier than it was entering the tournament, it’s not quite time to think the U.S. can reach new heights at a World Cup. Basically, the dreams seem more realistic than they did a week and a half ago, but there’s still a long way to go.
Oh, and if you’re wondering what the outlook is for Thursday’s group stage finale, which suddenly has absolutely zero stakes with the U.S. having already clinched top spot in the group and Turkey eliminated, it’s close in the odds. The Americans are favored to win, but at plus money. U.S. manager Mauricio Pochettino could rest starters, but it might resemble a friendly more than a World Cup match.
