What must happen for the Huskies to reach CFP?

Published 10:27 am Friday, August 14, 2026

SEATTLE, Wash. — A week into Fall Camp, expectations are high among the Washington Huskies coaches and players.

People outside of Montlake are also buying into the team Jedd Fisch has assembled going into this third year as the head football coach. A year after finishing 9-4, the Huskies debuted 19th in the Coaches Poll. Phil Steele lists Washington 15th in his annual College Football Preview. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic placed Washington 15th, while On3’s Brett McMurphy tabbed UW 10th.

While most of those rankings suggest the Huskies will fall just outside the 12-team 2026 College Football Playoff field, it also puts them in range for Fisch’s first CFP as a head coach. Indiana entered the 2025 season 20th in the Associated Press Poll, and the coaches put the Hoosiers 19th. Indiana went on to win all 16 of its games on its way to a national championship.

Meanwhile, Penn State opened both polls in the top three before losing its first six conference games, which led to the firing of coach James Franklin.

A lot of crazy things happen during college football seasons. While the Huskies don’t necessarily need total chaos, UW must have a few stars align to play in meaningful December games.

While I’ll make game-by-game predictions later this month, I expect to land on nine or 10 regular season wins for Washington. The gap between nine and 10, though, is the largest one-game gap for Big Ten and SEC teams hoping to make the 12-team CFP. Win 10, and you’re in. Win nine, and you’re almost certainly out.

Demond Williams Jr. big-time in Big Ten games

No longer young in terms of experience, the third-year quarterback must elevate the team in key moments and in big games. Though Washington’s defense should be able to hold its own against the best of the Big Ten, the Huskies offense can’t disappear like they did in losses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Oregon last year.

Washington averaged 9.3 points in those games, with defenses taking away Williams’ electric running threat by holding him to 10 yards per game. Aided by losses on 17 sacks in those games, Williams averaged less than a yard per carry in Washington’s losses.

The leadership must be there in key moments. There will be third-down throws and savvy runs required. Sacks and interceptions to avoid. He needs to look like a quarterback who was reportedly offered over $6 million to transfer to LSU in January. This time, the Huskies hope to be playing in January instead of guarding the portal door.

“This is by far a different Demond than we’ve had in the past,” Fisch told new Washington play-by-play announcer Elise Woodward on Tuesday. “I mean, he is smiling. He is loving being out there. There’s just so much joy he’s playing with.”

“He’s playing at the highest level that he’s played at. The ball’s coming out of his hand great. He’s making great decisions. He owns the offense. I barely have to give him the play call, and he knows what’s about to happen. You could just see the connection he’s making with his teammates. This is his second year as a starter, and the leap he has made between year one and year two as a starter, I’m sure the results will come during the season, but the results in the practice field have certainly come.”

Williams sounds different this fall — like a second-year starter who is no longer a teenager. Washington will need that maturity in key moments.

Freshman left tackle lives up to lofty expectations

Successful seasons rarely begin with an 18-year-old at one of the most crucial positions in football. Kodi Greene, however, is not your typical true freshman offensive lineman.

Left guard John Mill proved last season that a first-year college football lineman can compete in the Big Ten. Greene, a five-star recruit out of Mater Dei High School (Santa Ana, Calif.), will be called upon to replicate — or perhaps surpass — Mills’ 2025 season. Washington believes that nine months of offseason training at UW and his play in a strong competition in high school make him ready for the tall task.

Freakish genetics also help. Greene stands 6-6 and approximately 325 pounds and offers rare athleticism for a man his size. He took the first snap in spring ball with the No. 1 offense, and nothing has moved him off that spot so far. Now he must build cohesion with a solid unit that includes Mills, fourth-year center Landen Hatchett, second-year right guard Champ Taulealea and fifth-year right tackle Drew Azzopardi.

UW’s line has a chance to be one of the best units in the Big Ten if Greene steps in and performs as expected. Washington’s soft non-conference schedule will give Greene a relatively smooth runway into the meat of the Big Ten. The Huskies open with four straight home games, including Washington State, Utah State and Eastern Washington. After opening conference play against Minnesota in Game Four, Greene will return to Southern California on Oct. 3 when the UW faces USC, ranked 14th in the preseason Coaches Poll.

That day could reveal a lot about the fortunes of Greene and the 2026 Huskies.

“Coach Fisch always says, ‘We’re going to play the best players, whether you’re young, whether you’re a fifth-year senior,” UW offensive line coach Michael Switzer said. “And Kodi’s position, the fact that he came in for spring ball and took, I think, 98% of reps at tackle with the ones — he showed that he could do it.”

Disruptive defensive front, edge health

Washington’s defense was 15th in FBS in points allowed during the 2025 season, and never allowed more than 26 points. The Huskies managed to hang in there despite lacking a major disruptor on the defensive front. UW ranked 86th in FBS with 1.8 sacks per game, and no Husky recorded more than four.

While Washington stayed in games against Ohio State and Oregon last season, the Huskies allowed several long drives in each game. Finding players who can create havoc up front would help a solid defense become one of the nation’s elite.

Health will be a big part of the equation. Russell Davis II missed the entire 2025 season with injury after playing in just three games in 2024. He’s made an impact when healthy, though, including a three-sack game against UCLA in 2024 that earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Logan George dominated at Idaho State, which led to his transfer to Ohio State for the 2025 season. He missed the season with a lower leg injury. He’s healthy again this fall, and the fourth-year edge hopes to make an impact for the Huskies. Fifth-year edge Isaiah Ward has also shown some pass-rush ability, though he missed the last five games of the 2025 season.

Transfer defensive linemen Darin Conley, DeSean Watts and Kai McLendon have been disruptive at previous spots, though Conley and Watts will be playing their first seasons of Power Four football and McLendon has yet to fully practice after missing the 2025 season with a knee injury.

Some of the front’s futures depend upon true freshmen Derek Colman-Brusa and Ramzak Fruean. Coaches have been effusive with praise about both players, and believe Fruean in particular possesses big-play potential.

“He’s grown 20 pounds,” Fisch said of Fruean. “He’s grown in maturity. He’s grown in understanding how to practice. He’s grown in understanding the value of being a great teammate. On top of that, as he continues to work with Coach (Aaron) Van Horn, Coach Walt (Ryan) Walters, Coach (Jason) Kaufusi — pass rushing has gotten better. Understanding how to set the edge (has) gotten better. Understanding to stay away from the quarterback during practice has gotten a lot better.”

Avoid Wisconsin in Nebraska and Michigan

Riding the high of a home win over then No. 23 Illinois last season, a 6-2 Washington traveled to Wisconsin, ranked for the first time all season with dreams of the CFP floating through Dawg fans’ minds. The Badgers took away the ranking and the CFP dreams with an ugly 13-10 win over UW. Without that loss, the finale against Oregon likely would have served essentially as a CFP play-in game for Washington.

Instead, Washington played the Ducks only for pride, which it also lost, 26-14.

The potential Wisconsins on the schedule this season appear to be trips to Nebraska and Michigan State. While Michigan State might win just two or three Big Ten games this season, Washington must avoid tripping over one of the three dreaded time zone lines between Seattle and East Lansing.

Fisch spoke to Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald about winning games multiple time zones away, and hopes he learned something about traveling east. A loss at rebuilding Michigan State essentially destroys any chance of Fisch’s first trip to the CFP.

While Nebraska lies just two time zones away, many expect the Cornhuskers to win about eight games this year. With a home game against Indiana and Ohio State, as well and road tilts at Illinois, Oregon, and Iowa, the Halloween game against the Huskies is one Nebraska likely needs to hit the eight-win mark.

A loss at Nebraska means a win over a tougher team would be a requirement to keep the playoffs a possibility.

Go 4-1 against middling teams

Washington plays most of its weak opponents early, and the two toughest late. A sweep of Washington State, Utah State and Eastern Washington should get the Huskies to 3-0, and the other must-wins include at Purdue (Oct. 16) and at Michigan State (Nov. 14)

There are five games against 2025 Big Ten bowl teams that won’t be easy. Unless they can beat both Indiana and Oregon late, a 4-1 record in the following games likely gives Washington a chance to steal a playoff bid.

• Minnesota, Sept. 26

• at USC, Oct 3

• Iowa, Oct. 9

• at Nebraska, Oct. 31

• Penn State, Nov. 7

If the Huskies can beat the pesky Golden Gophers in their final September game, they likely head to LA 4-0 and on the fringe of the Top 10. Despite winning its last two, UW has lost 32 of its 44 road games at USC. The Trojans, rickety at times under head coach Lincoln Riley, have the talent to hang with most teams. The Trojans will be coming off a home game against Oregon the week before, which could also factor into the game against Washington.

Penn State looks to rebound under new head coach Matt Campbell after James Franklin was fired amid a six-game conference losing streak to start the season. The Nittany Lions could be a nine-win team this season, though, and have enough bulk on the offensive and defensive lines to hang in at Husky Stadium.

Iowa is another physical Big Ten opponent that could muddy the waters around Montlake on a Friday night after UW returns from Los Angeles.

Season-ending split

While there’s only one year’s worth of data from a 12-game playoff to go on, it seems Big Ten or SEC teams with two regular-season losses are in, and three-loss teams are out. (Alabama lost its third game in the SEC championship game and still got in.)

It’s hard to imagine, though, a team getting in after losing its last two regular-season games. So, even if Washington opens 10-0, losses to Indiana and Oregon to finish 10-2 will at the very least put the CFP committee in a position to consider excluding them. This of course depends on the resumes of other teams ranked in the 10-15 area, and maybe if UW loses both by single digits, they still make it.

But it’s also a lot to ask of a relatively young Washington team to win its first 10 games. The CFP recipe that seems most realistic is a 9-1 start, followed by a home win over Indiana and a non-blowout loss at Oregon.

New Carr runs well

Washington will essentially have a brand new running back room in 2026 following the departures of Jonah Coleman (NFL), Adam Mohammed (transfer) and Jordan Washington, who could miss the entire season with a neck injury.

That’s 289 carries, 1,514 yards and 20 touchdowns out the door, with a grand total of 38 yards coming back. Second-year back Quaid Carr accounted for 14 of those yards, and has been running with the first team during spring and so far in fall camp.

Senior transfers Jayden Limar and Trey Cooley will help carry the load, and talented freshman Brian Bonner Jr. could factor in as well. While Carr will have reinforcements, it will be crucial for the speedster to keep the chains moving in Big Ten games.

“We don’t have an RB1 right now,” running backs coach Scottie Graham said of his second-year runner. “We’re still in competition. We’re lucky to have Quaid in the offense. Quaid was the Player of the Year in the Trinity (high school league), so used to big-time football. Just a matter of adjusting to it now. He’s about 8-9-10 pounds bigger now.”

At media day on Aug. 4, Graham offered even stronger words.

“He’s special.”

X marks the spot

The spring began with heavy competition at the X receiver position, vacated by Denzel Boston’s selection in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Touted freshman Jordan Clay may have an impact this season, but Kennesaw State senior transfer Christian Moss is firmly in the pole position to start the season-opening Apple Cup on Sept 6. Dezmen Roebuck has locked up the slot position, while a healthy Rashid Williams owns the Z.

“I think Christian’s a dude. He’s a dude,” Fisch said. “He’s made a lot of big-time plays throughout. Got to make them all, but no one makes them all. I’m loving how he’s doing. He’s taken every rep with the first offense at X, and he’s earned that right. He’s just somebody that’s put himself in position that he’s going to be pretty special, I think.”

Luck

There will be a football on the ground or tipped up into the air at some point during the 2026 season that could be the difference between nine or 10 wins. A little bit of luck could go a long way, and the Huskies will need a little bit of that to get to the CFP.

This story originally appeared at emeraldcityspectrum.com.