EVERETT — Both Boeing and its European competitor, Airbus, agree on one thing: commercial jets will be in great demand over the next few decades. For that reason, each manufacturer projected more than 42,000 planes will be needed through 2044.
In a report released Saturday, Boeing said that 43,600 jets would be needed through 2044. In its similar forecast on June 11. Airbus projected 42,330 planes for the same time frame.
The manufacturers released their reports in the days before the start of the Paris Air show on June 19, a top aviation event at which Boeing and Airbus highlight their planes and work on making sales to carriers.
Boeing and Airbus hold a near duopoly on the manufacture of large commercial jets.
Boeing and Airbus attributed a rising middle class in worldwide emerging markets and a post-pandemic recovery in air traffic passengers as key factors in driving the demand for new aircraft.
Boeing said passenger traffic is forecast to grow 4.2% annually, more than doubling in size from today, as it continues to outpace global economic growth.
“Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory, ” said Brad McMillen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing in the report.
Both Boeing and Airbus said the rise of the middle class in markets like Southeast Asia and India will also be a key factor in the need for new planes. Boeing said that emerging markets will represent over 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40% in 2024.
Boeing also said single-aisle airplanes will make up 72% of the global fleet in 2044, up from 66% in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.
Last year, Boeing projected 43,975 new jets in its two-decade forecast, so this year’s projections are a slight decrease. Boeing officials were unavailable to discuss the decrease.
However, Toulouse, France-based Airbus’ forecast figures an increase of fewer than 1,000 planes from last year. Airbus officials forecast a 3.6% increase each year in passenger growth through 2044, slightly less than Boeing’s 4.2%.
Randy Diamond: 425-339-3097; randy.diamond@heraldnet.com.
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