For months, the storyline of the 2010 election focused on the enthusiasm of Republicans.
Turns out, Democrats in Western Washington were pretty enthusiastic, too.
Their late surge to the polls surprised GOP strategists and may buffer the Democratic Party against significant political damage from the Republican wave that washed over the nation this election.
Republicans will capture one congressional seat and add a few faces to the Legislature, for certain. More gains were expected in a year when the issues and the mood of voters seemed perfectly aligned for them.
“I’m a little disappointed not to capitalize,” said Rep. Mike Hope, R-Lake Stevens, who easily won re-election. “I thought we’d pick up the majority in one of the (Legislature’s) chambers. If we can’t get a majority now or if we can’t win a statewide race in a year like this, when is it ever going to happen?”
Republicans sounded much more upbeat Tuesday and Wednesday. They were chatting about controlling the state Senate, maybe the state House and picking up at least two congressional seats.
They said Democrats had peaked in their performances and the picture would only get brighter because Republicans historically win the majority of ballots counted after Election Day.
Not this year. As a result, Republican candidates are watching Election Night leads diminish or disappear and Democrats are breathing a bit easier.
For example, on Tuesday, Republican John Koster raced to a 1,400-vote lead on Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., in the 2nd Congressional District. By Friday, he was behind by 3,800 votes.
Heidi Munson, a Bothell Republican trying to become a state lawmaker representing south Snohomish County, had a comfortable advantage over Democrat Luis Moscoso of Mountlake Terrace. Then he went in front by 20 votes Thursday and his lead reached 291 votes by 7 p.m. Friday.
In the 44th Legislative District, Republican Dave Schmidt wasn’t worried about trailing state Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, by eight votes on the night of election. He was certain he’d make it up in the following days. Yet by Friday, the deficit had grown to 543 votes.
“It certainly is not the trends we saw in the primary and previous general elections. Those favored Republicans,” said Alex Hays, executive director of Mainstream Republicans of Washington. “I would be surprised if we’ve peaked. I still think there’s an upturn coming for Republicans that will push a lot of these close races over to us.”
Kevin Carns, who oversees the political operation of the Republican caucus in the state House of Representatives, said, “There’s an inexplicable calculus going on.
“They turned their voters out but I still think we’ll finish strong. We close elections. We do better in late ballot returns,” he said.
Maybe not this time. A massive get-out-the-vote blitz conducted by the Democratic Party, the campaigns of Sen. Patty Murray, Larsen and other candidates, organized labor and other interest groups took hold in the final days of the election.
“In the Northwest we deal a lot with floods and waves. The way to deal with them is a wall,” Larsen said. “Our volunteers spent weeks building a wall against a national tide and so far it is holding.”
The effort generated a burst of voters that is pushing turnout in Snohomish County and the rest of state to near 70 percent, a mark not achieved since 1970.
Snohomish County Auditor Carolyn Weikel saw it in the elections office where people streamed in Tuesday to drop off ballots or vote on the touch screen machines set up there. Lines of cars could be seen all day at drop boxes around the county.
“Everybody was energized about this big election,” she said. “I think the GOTV that the Democrats did play a role in what we we’re seeing.”
While late-arriving ballots may have leaned Republican in recent elections, it doesn’t have much to do with politics, academics said.
“There’s nothing systematic to show a partisan trend,” said Matt Barreto, the director of the Washington Poll.
Ballots broke the way of Democrats in the 2008 race for governor, he said. In 2009, the trend went for passage of Referendum 71 to extend rights to same-sex couples.
Matt Manweller, a professor of political science at Central Washington University, said there’s nothing unique with late voters. “They’re just late deciders,” he said.
Where votes are cast — not who casts them — is a bigger determiner of how they will break down, he said. Ballots from rural areas may arrive for counting later in an election cycle. Residents in those areas may tend to back conservative politics and thus those turn out to be Republican votes.
“As a political scientist, I reject the notion that Republicans vote later than Democrats or Democrats vote later than Republicans,” he said. “Geography is the more predictive variable than partisanship.”
Hope figured the reason Democrats are picking up more votes after this election is a factor of Republican enthusiasm.
“I would say we were so excited that we turned in our ballots early,” he said.
Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com
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