Comment; Ukraine flies a flag for a more assertive Europe

By Lionel Laurent / Bloomberg Opinion

The yellow and blue of Ukraine’s flag, which was banned during the Soviet era, has become a powerful global symbol after Russia’s invasion. It’s been beamed onto landmarks from New York to Sarajevo, splashed across social media, and waved during anti-war protests around the world.

It has also done a lot to bind members of the European Union and the NATO alliance together, in a moment of welcome geopolitical solidarity after a pandemic that hardened borders and national interests. Sanctions are piling up against Russia, refugees are being taken in, business and political ties are being cut, and financial and military support for Ukraine is flowing.

As Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy heaps pressure on Europe to be more assertive, Russian President Vladimir Putin is triggering the kind of fear that smashes long-held taboos. The EU is supplying arms to a country at war for the first time in its history, using a financial envelope whose name — the “Peace Facility” — says it all. It’s not often that security takes priority over economic expediency. The union is waking up to a new normal of “permanent instability,” according to the German Marshall Fund’s Bruno Lete.

And as the balance of European power swings East — where Baltic states feel emboldened after warning for years of Putin’s belligerence but also vulnerable to conflict at their doorstep — Kyiv is reiterating demands for the ultimate prize: Membership in the EU club. Fed up with knocking politely at the door, Zelenskiy is giving it a kick. “Europe must give Ukraine everything it asks for,” Latvia’s defense minister wrote in a Financial Times op-ed, citing Ukraine’s aspirations to join EU and also NATO.

Obviously, if there’s a time to dream big, it’s now. It is perhaps easier to visualize the EU’s flag one day billowing next to Ukraine’s than it is NATO’s, described by a former head of the alliance as a hell-freezing-over scenario. Some symbolic recognition of Kiev’s European aspirations would be a worthy accompaniment of more funding and deeper ties; especially if it adds to diplomatic pressure on Putin.

But amid the idealism, there still needs to be realism: Not every taboo is going to be broken.

EU enlargement is not just a bureaucratic paper-push but a preciously guarded power that has been as divisive a topic as defense; not least after the departure of the United Kingdom and worries over democratic backsliding in the East. Ukraine’s 43 million citizens and commodities-focused economy would take years, if not decades, to integrate. Even as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen trumpeted that Ukraine was “one of us,” European Council President Charles Michel cautioned of “differing” views on the issue.

Nor is it obvious that the Europeans have fully worked out what kind of defense they want. There has been a lack of political will, concrete budget commitments and an inability of 27 countries to define their most pressing threats. The EU facility financing weapons for Ukraine is an off-budget, inter-governmental tool that won’t require any internal arm-twisting. We are still at the easiest point of the turnaround; the beginning.

Even without a full-fledged vision of defense, more spending seems inevitable. Defense company shares are rising, with BAE Systems and Thales up around 25 percent this month as achieving the symbolic level of 2 percent of GDP would see Germany alone spend an extra $18 billion, according to Jefferies analysts. Even if Sciences Po’s Julien Theron notes that the 2 percent figure is symbolic rather than a fulfilment of NATO’s wish list, an awakening is taking place.

And the willingness of the EU to confront its trade and energy ties to Russia is an important signal for a union with global dependencies that leave it vulnerable; the recent launch of a screening tool to monitor foreign investment from powers like China is slowly gaining traction.

The real limits to a more assertive EU will ultimately be set by governments and voters. What seems unifying today can create the opposite result tomorrow. The sight of American troops leaving Afghanistan in chaotic fashion, or French troops leaving Mali, are visible signs that an initially popular and necessary military response can lose support over time. The EU has also yet to feel the full economic brunt of sanctions.

It is, however, heartening that the EU’s power play is being seen, not just heard: A more assertive bloc willing to invest in defense with U.S. support, confront economic dependencies that make it vulnerable, and find common ground among its members. It’s an idealistic flag, but one worth flying.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the European Union and France.