Analyst: Boeing to deliver 5 787s this year; will lose major 737 customer

Published 9:49 am Tuesday, February 8, 2011

The Boeing Co. and Airbus could land as many as 1,500 total commercial jet orders in 2011, predicted an aerospace analyst Tuesday.

Analyst Richard Aboulafia, with the Teal Group, spoke Tuesday morning at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance annual conference in Lynnwood.

Here are few key tidbits from Aboulafia:

Boeing’s 787: The Boeing Co. will deliver only five 787s this year. That’s less than Boeing’s prediction of up to 20 Dreamliner deliveries in 2011. For Aboulafia, though, the chance of 787 deliveries slipping into 2012: not inconceivable. Also, he believes Boeing won’t ramp up as quickly on the Dreamliner as it plans.

Airbus’ A350 XWB: Airbus’ A350 XWB will be delayed until 2015. But, “this A350 thing, it’s for real,” Aboulafia said. The analyst believes Airbus will learn a lot from Boeing’s mistakes with the 787. As a result, the A350 will be a very good product, he said.

A380: The A380 is not a solid product. And Airbus’ wasted investment in it means the company needs to be successful on the A350.

“This A350 better be as good as it looks otherwise it’s going to be a very difficult picture for Airbus on the widebody front,” Aboulafia said.

On the single aisles: Aboulafia believes Airbus did the best it could with the A320 New Engine Option, given its resources.

And “I think there will be a defection from the 737 to the A320 neo or C-Series by the end of the year.”

Air Force tanker: “Nobody of consequence has changed their minds on this issue in many years,” Aboulafia said. “This is gridlock .. there really isn’t a way out of here unless there’s a joint buy.”

Although there are new delays brewing on the $35 billion contest between EADS and Boeing, Aboulafia sees a contract award announcement this year.

” Does it mean anything?” he said. “No. Congress will get its hands on things and mess it up.”