By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
This June was the hottest for that month ever recorded. July followed as the world’s hottest month ever. Global ocean temperatures set records for the third straight month. And in mid-July, a third of the U.S. population was living under a heat advisory.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration attributes record temperatures to human-caused global warming from burning fossil fuels, boosted by the El Niño weather pattern. Years of loading greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere at ever increasing amounts is resulting in record temperatures and other changes to our environment, atmosphere and oceans, described here as climate-influenced events.
Climate-influenced events (e.g. heat, storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and sea level rise) are increasing in frequency, intensity and cost. These events have profound effects on the health and well-being of individuals, communities and the economy. They increase costs and risks to individuals, infrastructure, businesses and governments.
Consider the threats closest to home:
Storm events: Warmer air holds more moisture and climate change is altering the timing of precipitation in the Pacific Northwest with warmer and wetter winters and longer dry periods. Storm events deliver more intense atmospheric rivers. Snohomish County’s convergence zone further amplifies these events.
North Puget Sound — including Everett and Snohomish County — is particularly vulnerable to climate-influenced storm events and sea level rise (king tides). The region is defined by miles of coastline (salt water and rivers). Most residents live along or in close proximity to the shorelines, or one of four river systems. The coastal, marine and riverine environments support vital economic resources including forestry, fisheries, agriculture, tourism and trade.
North Puget Sound is located in the crosshairs of three significant geographic features that can — and often do — intensify extreme weather.
To the north, British Columbia’s Fraser River valley funnels cold arctic air south out of Canada, usually during high pressure systems in winter. To the west, the Strait of Juan De Fuca funnels storm systems out of the Gulf of Alaska, a normal weather pattern during fall and winter months driven by the prevailing jet stream. To the south, Puget Sound funnels weather systems from the Southern Pacific, often as atmospheric rivers, bringing extreme precipitation. These three geographic features intensify storm events on the exposed marine environment of North Puget Sound, including the San Juan archipelago, and the mouths of the Snohomish, Skagit, Stillaguamish and Nooksack rivers. These four river systems are subject to flooding, resulting from extreme storm and rain events, rapid snow runoff, sea level rise and king tides.
Examples include flooding in Stanwood during king tides, and extreme storm events in November 2021 where atmospheric rivers resulted in record flooding on the Nooksack and flooding on the Skagit, Stillaguamish and Snohomish rivers. Climate change has loaded the dice and is “supersizing many of our weather events, making them stronger, longer and more damaging” says Katharine Hayhoe, chief climate scientist for the Nature Conservancy.
Heat and wildfires: Heat and wildfire events have grown in frequency and intensity. In 2021 the Pacific Northwest heat dome smashed temperature records and resulted in more than 440 heat-related deaths. Similar heat dome events are emerging this year across the planet and these events are expected to occur with greater frequency and intensity as the planet warms.
The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and the Center for Health and Global Environment, recently released a report focusing on how communities can prepare for heat events and the risks to human health associated with them. I’ll write more about climate adaptation in future articles.
Wildfires and smoke used to be rare occurrences in Western Washington. They are now a regular events in the Pacific Northwest and around the world. Climate change has altered the nature of wildfires, burning hotter and faster, increasing risks and costs.
Changing risk: Climate change creates a new normal and a new standard for defining, measuring and managing risk. It places new responsibilities and costs on governments, business and individuals including increased health risks; response and recovery costs; financial and legal risks; loss of tax revenues; and impacts to essential infrastructure on water, sewer, power and transportation.
In addition, new construction must account for changing circumstances related to climate change. Historic weather and climate patterns are no longer a reliable basis for predicting the future, designing new infrastructure or maintaining existing assets.
Insurance, finance and legal institutions are reassessing managing environmental risks associated with climate change. In 2020, Moody’s — a financial rating organization — announced the formation of an Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) solutions group. Moody’s noted that higher maintenance costs and lost tax revenue are particular credit risks for state and local governments.
In 2020, Standard & Poor’s put some local governments in Oregon on credit watch because of the growing risks from fires. A jury just found the electrical utility PacificCorp liable for punitive damages associated with Oregon’s 2020 fires. This year, State Farm announced it would stop selling coverage to homeowners in California. Other states including Louisiana, Florida and Kentucky are experiencing significant increases in insurance costs and/or limitations in coverage as a result of climate-influenced events.
Responding to climate change involves two strategies: adaptation, preparing for a warming world; and mitigation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These are the subjects of future articles. Article 3 in the series will be “Heat: The Wild Card.”
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions —carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, will focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Read the first article at tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics1.
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