By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
According to NASA’s global climate change website, 2023 was the Earth’s warmest year since modern record-keeping began around 1880, and the past 10 consecutive years have been the warmest on record.
Global temperatures are increasing from the burning of fossil fuels, emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The result is an increase in frequency, intensity and severity of climate influenced events — heat, droughts, floods, storms, sea level rise and wildfires — the subject of this article.
Wildfires are among the most dramatic indicators of accelerating climate change and they are increasing across the globe. Wildfire seasons are starting earlier and lasting later into the year. In many areas wildfires are emerging as a year-round threat. The geographic reach of wildfires is expanding to include areas not previously at risk, such as rainforests and arctic tundra.
Canada experienced its worst wildfire season on record in 2023, with more than 45 million acres consumed, 2.5 times more than the previous record set in 1995. These fires burned areas in Quebec, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories forcing the evacuation of its capital, Yellowknife. Smoke from these fires blanketed the eastern U.S. degrading air quality to unhealthy levels in the most populated areas along the East Coast. In recent years wildfires have emerged across the planet in Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, South America and Russia.
Wildfires and associated smoke are now routine signs of summer in the western U.S. California has seen eight of its ten largest wildfires and six of the most destructive since 2017. Similar examples exist in Washington, Oregon and elsewhere. This year, in Washington state, the Gray Fire west of Spokane destroyed parts of the towns of Medical Lake, Lakeland Village and Silver Lake. In Snohomish County, the Bolt Creek wildfire in 2022 burned for weeks along U.S. 2.
But there is much more to this story than more fires burning more acres in more places. Climate change is altering the very nature of wildfires and dramatically increasing the risks associated with them. By burning fossil fuels and heating the atmosphere, we are literally throwing gas on the fire.
The elements of fire are heat, fuel and oxygen with a catalyst. Climate change is increasing heat and fuel. In his book “Fire Weather,” John Vaillant describes in searing detail the 2016 wildfire that destroyed much of the town of Fort McMurray, Alberta, and how climate change was an accelerant. He points out how wildfires can accelerate “with explosive suddenness; arriving in a community at flash-flood speed. While floods generally follow rivers, and hurricanes follow weather patterns, fire can occur anywhere there’s fuel.” High temperature and low humidity dramatically expand fire’s fuel menu. “The paths fire takes are determined almost exclusively by the wind, which can blow in any direction. In this sense, fire is the most versatile of disasters. Able to self-generate from a single spark, explode like a bomb, turn on a dime, and fly over obstacles, fire possesses an unparalleled capacity for random movement and rapid growth.”
Global warming is increasing the number of extreme heat events which in turn increases fuel and fire conditions. High heat occurs when high pressure in the atmosphere pushes warm air toward the ground. As the air is compressed, it warms up further. When these conditions are accompanied by low humidity and wind, the moisture is literally sucked out of the atmosphere and everything in it; including soils and plants.
Vaillant points out: “The drier the fuel and the hotter the air, the more explosive the fires.” High heat and low humidity create an effect known as “crossover.” As the gap between air temperature and humidity widens, a fire can grow exponentially faster creating its own wind and weather. When this occurs the fire is in control, moving literally at the speed of the wind it is helping to increase, pulling in oxygen to fuel the flames. Trees become fire bombs and the wind becomes a flame thrower. This is knows as a feedback loop and it is what happened in Fort McMurray, Alberta; Lytton, B.C., Lahaina, Hawaii, and Paradise, Calif. As global temperatures increase, so too will these events, and no community is safe from them.
Climate change also increases the amount of fuel and lightning. Warmer air holds more moisture increasing precipitation during rainy seasons. The cycle of wetter and dryer seasonal shifts can increase vegetation growth which becomes fuel during extreme dry periods. When fuels are dry, almost any spark can start a fire (as it did in Lahaina) and lightning is the most common cause. Wildfires can generate their own lightning, and a warming world increases lightning strikes.
Growing threats from wildfires have sparked changes in firefighting strategies, emergency management, insurance and risk management and building techniques. In Washington state, the Department of Natural Resources and the Office of the Insurance Commissioner have done exceptional work on wildfire response and risk management respectively. The insurance commissioner has been working with the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety researching what homeowners can do to prepare for wildfires and mitigate losses. Locally, the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management maintains a website that includes wildfire safety information at tinyurl.com/SnoCoWildfireInfo.
Many communities are preparing or updating their emergency management plans and strategies to respond to the changing threat presented by wildfires. More needs to be done, along with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It’s time to stop throwing gas on the fire.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency board of directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series is focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. The series will return in January.
Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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