By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
A new year is a time for reflections, predictions and resolutions. Reflections on the year past, predictions on the year to come, and resolutions to improve the future. For climate change and clean energy economics, there is much to discuss.
Reflections: 2024 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, exceeding even 2023, the previous hottest year. And it will lead a decade as the warmest ten years on record. At year’s end, carbon dioxide levels reached 424 ppm and global temperatures were 1.4 degrees above preindustrial levels. Both continue to rise.
In November, the annual United Nations climate conference, COP29, noted countries have made little progress curbing emissions over the past year. However, there is some evidence that the rate of increase may be slowing.
As of November there had been 24 confirmed weather and climate disasters in the United States with losses exceeding $1 billion.
The cost of renewable energy, particularly solar, is continues to fall relative to fossil fuels. The United States, China and European nations are investing in clean energy technologies, but not yet fast enough to meet growing energy demand and bend the emissions curve. Fossil fuel use is also rising to fill the gap, increasing emissions.
Progress was made in new technologies expanding clean energy options including: low-emission technologies, energy and battery storage, and capturing carbon and removing it from the atmosphere.
Washington voters overwhelmingly supported the Climate Commitment Act, and other states took actions positively responding to climate change.
Predictions: Looking ahead, 2025 marks the mid-point of the decade widely considered critical to limit global warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius per the Paris agreement, necessary to avoid the worst impacts of a warming climate. Some predictions for 2025 follow:
• Temperatures will continue to rise though the shift from El Niño to La Niña may be a mitigating factor for temperatures and climate impacts.
• Climate impacts such as extreme weather events, heat, droughts, fires, floods, rising sea levels and biodiversity loss will continue.
• Emissions will continue to rise, though the rate of growth may begin to level off. A number of nations including China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and the U.S. are moving to reduce emissions. However, the progress is too slow to meet Paris targets in this decade and the U.S. is pivoting toward fossil fuels, reversing commitments to clean energy and lower emissions.
• The new Trump administration has promised to cut support for clean energy, electric vehicles, and environmental regulations, and will attempt to roll back President Joe Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which included numerous climate initiatives and investments. He may choose to withdraw from the Paris agreements as he did in his first term. Trump’s choices to lead Interior (Doug Burgum), Energy (Chris Wright) and the Environmental Protection Agency (Lee Zeldin) all support increasing investments in fossil fuels and decreasing regulations on the oil and gas industry.
• Other nations including China and European Union members will continue to develop and deploy clean energy technologies and market strategies reducing emissions. China in particular is developing a dominant world presence in clean energy and electric vehicles. China produces far more clean energy equipment than any other country including lithium-ion batteries and solar panels. A diminished U.S. role will result in less competition for the Chinese and others in the clean energy economy.
• Mitigating climate impacts will fall primarily to state and local governments as first responders. Many states including Washington and California already have significant programs in place, including cap-and-trade requirements. State and local governments will continue efforts to support clean energy and respond to climate impacts.
Resolutions: Regardless of the Trump administration’s planned retreat from clean energy and climate policies, the world will continue on this path. So, too, will states such as Washington, and local governments adapting to climate impacts. Market forces such as cap-and-trade and carbon pricing are effective strategies. Compared to fossil fuels, renewables are getting cheaper and have lower operating costs.
The unsuccessful Initiative 2117 campaign, seeking to derail Washington state’s climate efforts, illustrated the effectiveness of market strategies. The campaign in support of the Climate Commitment Act effectively focused on how the initiative would hurt the state’s economy rather than save the planet. Washington voters agreed and overwhelmingly rejected the initiative.
A solid resolution for 2025 is to support market forces that price carbon, promote clean energy, and build resilient infrastructure. It is where the world is heading, and it’s a sound economic and business strategy. In time, it may appeal to a new administration that views itself as business savvy and does not want to be left in the dust of the Chinese or the rest of the world.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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