The NFL preseason is officially over. The 53-man rosters have been set. So between now and next Sunday is when everyone and their little cousin will be making their predictions for the upcoming season.
But I have a dirty little secret I will reluctantly share:
I’m sort of the anti-Nostradamus.
I’ve been working in the sportswriting field for 20 years. Before that I was the sports fanatic who would scour the newspaper’s sports section first thing every morning. Yet even with all that sports background I’m perhaps the worst sports prognosticator you’re ever going to find. Seriously. I’m the guy you want in your NCAA basketball pool, the one who knows the teams inside out, will break down each and every matchup, yet finish far behind those who are making their picks based on the team colors or mascots.
In my previous position as The Herald’s Everett Silvertips beat writer, I made regular use of my predictive ineptitude. I’d write an annual blog post just before the season began, but instead of making predictions I’d make non-predictions. I figured I might actually have a chance at predicting something that wouldn’t happen rather than something that would.
So in that vein, with the Seattle Seahawks now done with the preseason and readying themselves for next weekend’s regular-season opener at St. Louis, here’s my non-predictions for the 2015 Seahawks season:
— I predict I will not make it through the season without committing some egregious faux pas that results in either a lot of razzing by my fellow media members or me getting yelled at by a member of the Seahawks communication staff. Y’know, something like interviewing one player thinking he’s someone else, or asking a question that unwittingly gives away that week’s offensive gameplan. Sadly, it’s not like I haven’t done those type of things before.
— I predict Kam Chancellor will not extend his holdout deep into the regular season. There’s too much to lose on both sides. We’ve seen the Seahawks secondary struggle at times during the preseason, looking anything but the Legion of Boom. Meanwhile, Chancellor to this point has been accruing fines that likely will never be collected, but he’ll start feeling the financial strain when he’s not collecting his weekly paycheck.
— I predict Marshawn Lynch will not suddenly turn into the team’s media darling, despite the new specter of NFL fine hanging over his head. Lynch avoided a $75,000 fine for not addressing the media following last season’s NFC Championship Game by saying he would make himself available to the media going forward, but those who have been around Lynch know he has his own notion of what “making himself available” entails.
— I predict the Seahawks will not be as turnover-averse this season as they were last season. Last season, according to FootballOutsiders.com, Seattle had just 7.1 percent of its drives end in turnovers. Not only was that the best rate in the NFL, it was the best number since San Franciso’s paltry 2.7 percent in 2011. Quarterback Russell Wilson’s seven interceptions, while low, are largely in line with what he’s done throughout his first three seasons. However, he fumbled 11 times last season without losing a single one. There’s no way Seattle’s luck will be that good again.
— Speaking of Wilson, I predict Recovery Water will not be short on cash flow following all the attention received in the wake of Wilson’s Rolling Stone interview, in which he credited the Tacoma-based sports drink with helping heal injuries.
— I predict new Seahawks star tight end Jimmy Graham will not approach the numbers he put up in his best seasons in New Orleans — he caught 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2011, then added 86 catches for 1,215 yards and 16 TDs in 2013. That’s less a commentary on Graham than it is the difference between the Drew Brees-led Saints offense and the Wilson/Lynch Seahawks offense. Graham will still lead Seattle in receptions and receiving yards.
— I predict the San Francisco 49ers will not be as much fun for Seahawks fans to root against without Jim Harbaugh rampaging along the sideline.
— I predict the Seahawks will not reach their third straight Super Bowl. Only twice in NFL history has a team played in three straight Super Bowls: the Buffalo Bills played in four straight from 1991-94, and the Miami Dolphins played in three straight from 1972-74. It’s an incredibly difficult feat, especially during the salary-cap era when it’s impossible to maintain depth (both Buffalo and Miami had their runs before the salary cap). Seattle has tied down most of its top players to long-term contracts, but the sacrifice has been the inability to pay its depth players. The Seahawks will give it a good run, but a lack of depth will catch up and cause Seattle to fall short in the NFC divisional-playoff round.
So there you have it, everything that won’t happen with the Seahawks this season. Unless, of course, it does. Given my history, even predictions of what won’t happen are an unlikely bet.
Check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at http://www.heraldnet.com/seattlesidelines, and follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
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