Dan Johnson, Colorado College economics professor and Olympic medal-projection savant, just so happens to hail from Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan.
Since Johnson holds dual citizenship with Canada and the U.S., he’s pleased with how his forecasting model predicts his countries to fare in the Vancouver Winter Olympics. The Games open Friday in the picturesque and cosmopolitan coastal city.
“Canada and the U.S. are right there, neck-and-neck at the top,” Johnson said.
Host Canada is projected to edge out the world and for the first time win the overall medal count. Johnson expects the Canucks to earn five golds.
This tally could be underwhelming up North, with more than $100 million poured into Canada’s “Own the Podium” program. The number of golds is the same as projected for the U.S. and behind Russia’s eight and Germany’s seven. But it’s better than the previous times Canada hosted the Olympics — the 1976 Montreal Summer Games and 1988 Calgary Winter Games — when it whiffed on winning a single gold.
Team USA is projected to finish tied with Norway for a tight second overall, continuing a recent surge by Americans on ice. The U.S. has benefited from increased spending on winter sports, an Olympic program that embraces extreme sports and the momentum of winning a record 34 medals while at home for the 2002 Salt Lake City Games.
But Johnson doesn’t factor in the state of U.S. women’s figure skating (not expected to medal) or the favorites in new Olympic sport skicross (fun, full of crashes) in computing his medals forecasts. He uses an economic model, considering nations’ per capita income, population, Olympic history and the built-in advantage of hosting the Games or living near them.
“Many American athletes live closer to Vancouver than Canadian athletes do,” Johnson said. “It might spill over to the athletes in the U.S.”
Johnson’s projections for the 2006 Turin Winter Games were 93 percent accurate, and over the last five Olympics, 94 percent.
The idea isn’t to lessen the upcoming sea-to-sky drama, but to set expectations.
In Canada, they are hefty, especially in men’s and women’s hockey. And especially against the United States.
“The rivalry is every bit as intense as it’s ever been, if not more,” said U.S. defender Angela Ruggiero, who is competing in her fourth Olympics.
Lindsey Vonn, the dominating American Alpine skier and marketable blonde, is in position to win multiple medals and become the face of the Games in the United States. NBC has featured her in the buildup to what some have dubbed the “Vonn-couver” Olympics.
Snowboarder Shaun White, already an Olympic champion and redheaded X Games icon, is back. Soul-patched speedskater Apolo Anton Ohno can add to his five Olympic medals near his hometown of Seattle and become the most decorated U.S. Winter Olympian. U.S. figure skater Evan Lysacek, speedskater Shani Davis and bobsled driver Steve Holcomb could also star.
The U.S. Olympic Committee could use a golden Games after a recent overhaul among its top leadership, the rejection of the 2016 Chicago bid, and TV network and revenue-sharing flaps with the International Olympic Committee.
Here’s betting, for 17 days at least, the captivating story line will center on Canada winning its first gold medals on home soil, puck mania and whether the United States and Canada — as a Moose Jaw native predicts — indeed battle to win the overall medal count.
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