RENTON — The Seattle Seahawks changed coaches this offseason but maintained general manager John Schneider’s annual goal of owning the NFC West.
Entering this season, Seattle was not expected to do that. The Seahawks’ win total over/under before the season was 7.5, which ranked third behind the San Francisco 49ers (11.5) and the Los Angeles Rams (8.5), according to BetMGM. The rebuilding Arizona Cardinals (7.5) weren’t far behind. Austin Mock of betting model calculated an expected win total of 8.2 for Seattle, again behind the 49ers (11.4) and Rams (8.8), with the Cardinals bringing up the rear (7.1).
The 49ers earned their spot as heavy favorites by winning the division in each of the last two seasons. They had a 5-1 record in the NFC West in 2023, and the only loss was a Week 18 game against the Rams in which both teams rested their starters. San Francisco was a perfect 6-0 in the division in 2022. The Niners reached the NFC title game in the 2022 season, then took the Chiefs to overtime in the Super Bowl in February.
The Rams, understandably, were viewed as the second-best team in the NFC West after going 10-7 and narrowly losing to the Detroit Lions in the wild-card round of the playoffs last season. Arizona went 4-13 last season but played most of the year without quarterback Kyler Murray, who nearly led the Cardinals to victory over the Seahawks in Week 18 (Matt Prater missed a potential game-winning field goal as time expired).
But through seven weeks of 2024, the Seahawks (4-3) hold first place in what has developed into a seemingly wide-open division.
Seattle is the only team in the division with a winning record. The 49ers and Cardinals are 3-4, while the Rams are 2-4. However, the Seahawks are the only team without a division win. The Cardinals have wins over the Rams and 49ers. Los Angeles completed a comeback against San Francisco in Week 3, while the Seahawks were defeated at home by the 49ers in Week 6.
We now have a large enough sample to bring point differential into the discussion. The 49ers (+22) top the division, followed by the Seahawks (+16), Cardinals (-28) and Rams (-40). It’s still early in the year, so a blowout in either direction can skew that number a bit, but point differential is nonetheless another useful way to assess team strength. As a point of comparison, all four NFC North teams have winning records and positive point differentials; the 5-2 Packers have the lowest differential (+43), but that would lead the NFC West by a wide margin.
Beyond the numbers, injuries appear to be shaping the trajectory of the division. The Seahawks dealt with several on defense coming out of their three-game win streak to start the year, and on Sunday in Atlanta, they had to play their fourth-string right tackle. They might have reinforcements on the way, both on the offensive line and in the secondary, though the health of receiver DK Metcalf (knee) is now in question.
But even with a banged-up Metcalf, the Seahawks are looking at a healthier situation at the skill positions than the 49ers, who just lost All-Pro receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and spent most of Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs without receiver Deebo Samuel, who was hospitalized with pneumonia (he was released Tuesday). San Francisco has been without All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey all year due to Achilles tendinitis, though coach Kyle Shanahan indicated he could return in Week 10 (Seattle visits San Francisco in Week 11).
The Rams were decimated by offensive line injuries at the start of the season and then lost Puka Nacua (knee) following Week 1 and Cooper Kupp (ankle) in Week 2. On Tuesday, they opened Nacua’s 21-day practice window. Kupp is expected to play Thursday night against Minnesota, but Los Angeles has spoken with teams about trading its 31-year-old star receiver.
The Cardinals haven’t been as devastated by injuries, though they’ve had some problems with health on the right side of their offensive line. The bigger issue for second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon has been fielding a competent defense. His unit is among the worst in the league by points per drive and efficiency (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise).
Coming off their most complete game of the season, the Seahawks find themselves in a position to potentially own the NFC West.
The remaining five divisional games won’t be easy, of course. Seattle hasn’t defeated San Francisco since 2021. The Rams were without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald in both 2022 matchups, and Seattle still needed a game-winning touchdown pass and a field goal in overtime to beat its rival by a combined seven points in the two meetings. As bad as Arizona was last season, the Seahawks won those two games by only 11 total points. Seattle hasn’t had a positive point differential in the NFC West since 2020, which is the last time it won the division.
Outside of the division games, the Seahawks’ remaining schedule includes hosting the 5-2 Buffalo Bills on Sunday, a game against the Jets and three against the NFC North. The good news for Seattle is the Jets are reeling, and there’s no telling what they’ll look like by Week 13. However, the difficulty of the remaining schedule is perhaps why Mock’s model still projects the Seahawks with a lower chance of winning the division — and of making the playoffs — than the 49ers and Rams. The model projects all four teams to finish 8-9.
Winning the division might be Seattle’s best path to the postseason — Mock’s model gives the Seahawks a 23 percent chance to win the NFC West but only a 2 percent chance at a wild-card berth — in large part because of how strong the NFC North appears. Even if those teams beat up on each other a bit, it wouldn’t be surprising if that division sends three squads to the playoffs, just as the NFC East and NFC West did in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Seattle’s path to winning the division will be contingent on each side of the ball shoring up one area of concern.
First-year coordinator Ryan Grubb’s offense ranks third in early down pass rate in neutral situations, according to RBSDM.com, which removes blowouts and the final two minutes of each half from the data. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith ranks 15th in dropback EPA and has played well given his high pressure rate and the lack of a consistent run game, but there’s a reason three of the top four quarterbacks in dropback EPA — Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff — play on teams that run the ball more effectively than everyone else (the exception is Josh Allen). The Seahawks won’t win the division if Smith has to carry a one-dimensional offense.
On defense, the Seahawks saw on Sunday against Atlanta what can happen when they win the battle on early downs by stopping the run and forcing the opponent into obvious passing situations. The Seahawks rank fourth in pressure rate, seventh in sacks (20) and eighth in sack rate. They turned what had been a competitive game for three quarters versus Atlanta into a blowout by being able to unleash their pass rushers. And that was with three new starters in the secondary.
Statistically, Seattle has been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the run. The spine of the defense has been the main problem, but perhaps the return of Byron Murphy II, the addition of Roy Robertson-Harris and new starting safety Coby Bryant will result in better and more consistent play at all three levels.
If that happens, and the offense finds balance, the Seahawks can perhaps take advantage of a division that is up for grabs.
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