Hands off these guys next season

Published 9:00 pm Thursday, December 23, 2004

Last week, we looked at players to keep an eye on come fantasy draft day 2005.

This week, we’ll check out who to avoid – or, at least, who not to count on – when the new season approaches in a few months.

There’s a certain crop of players who either fell so far short of expectations that we should give up on them for quite a while, if not forever. And others who played so far above expectations that we should wonder whether they can truly sustain it.

Let’s check them out:

Quarterbacks

Houston’s David Carr has had a spotlight on him for a couple of seasons, and appeared to be pulling the pieces together to become a fantasy sleeper this year.

While he did improve on his first two years, the payoff wasn’t big enough and Carr likely cost several fantasy owners some success this year.

He’s only topped 300 yards passing twice all season – and both were in the first five weeks of the year – while throwing just 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’s also fumbled twice, giving him an even touchdown-to-turnover ratio.

It’s possible Carr could finally make the jump next season, but I wouldn’t take the chance on finding out.

Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger certainly has what it takes to get the Steelers far, but his fantasy output immediately conjures images of Troy Aikman.

Aikman did just enough to help his team to three Super Bowl titles, relying mainly on receiver Michael Irvin and tight end Jay Novacek. But his stats weren’t gleaming, with just one 20-plus touchdown season in 12 years.

Roethlisberger is showing the same signs. In an offense driven by the running game, he has a tremendous 12-game winning streak going. But Big Ben hit 300 passing yards for the first time last week, and only cleared the 200-yard mark twice. He also has passed for just 15 touchdowns, while throwing 10 picks and losing two fumbles.

A better option would even be a boom-or-bust type of passer, such as Kerry Collins or Aaron Brooks.

Running backs

The most difficult thing for anyone to do right now is bet against the Jets’ Curtis Martin, but time simply is not on his side. A workhorse for 10 seasons, and counting, Martin hasn’t missed a game in six years.

But he’ll be 32 by the time the 2005 season kicks off and, while he’s a top running back right now, I wouldn’t count on him as anything more than a No. 2 option next season. Like Eddie George, who is the same age as Martin, the drop off could be drastic and it could come quickly.

Staying in New York, Tiki Barber is the top fantasy running back this season, but I wouldn’t pin my hopes on him for next year. He has shown in the past four weeks what happens when he comes crashing back down to Earth.

In the first 12 weeks of the season, he failed to rush for 100 yards only three times. In the three weeks since, he’s put up just 38, 55 and 76 rushing yards. Barber, like Martin, could have value as a No. 2 option, but look elsewhere for a franchise rusher.

Wide receiver

Houston’s Andre Johnson goes hand-in-hand with the Texans’ Carr. Considered by many to be a top five receiver entering this season, Johnson has been average, at best, in landing in the top 15, of late.

But a true top receiver should be hauling in about five passes per game, something Johnson has done just six times in 14 games. Johnson should be considered a middle-of-the-road, second-tier receiver next year.

Columnist Victor Balta: 425-339-3455 or vbalta@heraldnet.com.