Bold predictions for the Boeing Machinists’ strike

Published 11:29 am Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Prediction: Its seventh strike against the Boeing Co. won’t be the Machinists union’s shortest.

OK, that’s not a very bold prediction. Today is day 18 of the strike and the shortest strike was 19 days long back in 1965.

Given the comments released by the Machinists and Boeing yesterday, it seems safe to predict this strike will be longer than the union’s last (28 days in 2005).

From the Machinists’ leaders:

The Company has not been willing to address your issues. Bringing close to the same offer you rejected by 80% is not movement. The Company knows they must move in the areas of Pension, Wages, Healthcare and Job Security in order to resolve this labor dispute. We will continue to push to get Boeing back to the table to address your issues.

From Boeing’s lead negotiator, Doug Kight:

It can be confusing to read in the media that both sides are ready and available to talk, yet no talks are scheduled. If there was a basis for getting back to the table then we would be there. I can tell you that the union’s list of issues, economic and non-economic, remains long and the gaps in our positions are wide.

Translation: Each party is willing to talk if the other side is willing to cave.

The strategy in a strike is to hurt the other party enough that, indeed, it is willing to cave. But the reality, in looking at past strikes, is that each party hurts and then each side gives a little.

What is each party willing to give up to get workers back in and jets going out of Boeing’s factories?

Would the Machinists go back to work for a 13 percent raise, lower overall costs on health care and preservation of survivor benefits on pension? That means no improvements on job security.

Would Boeing make guarantees on outsourcing if it got its way on health care, pension and wages?

What’s your prediction for the strike of 2008?