In Seahawks-49ers Round 3, coaching will be critical

Published 8:30 am Tuesday, January 13, 2026

The Seattle Seahawks felt they had a score to settle when they traveled to Levi’s Stadium for a rematch with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18.

The 49ers might be feeling the same way when they return to Lumen Field for the third matchup between these NFC West rivals.

“I can’t wait,” 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings said Sunday night when NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo told him the Seahawks were on deck. “That’s who we wanted.”

The No. 1 seed was on the line when the Seahawks beat the 49ers in the regular-season finale, and the stakes will be even higher in Round 3.

Whoever wins Saturday advances to the NFC championship game. The loser goes home. On Sunday, the sixth-seeded 49ers defeated the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles as 6.5-point road underdogs. Once the divisional-round matchup was set, Seattle opened as 6.5-point favorites against San Francisco, according to BetMGM.

San Francisco was the better team in the clutch when these teams met in Week 1. Quarterback Brock Purdy threw a game-winning touchdown, then defensive end Nick Bosa provided a game-ending strip-sack. In the rematch, Seattle raised the bar. The Seahawks’ running backs had 171 yards, the most allowed by San Francisco all season. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense held the 49ers to 3 points, tied for the lowest output of the Kyle Shanahan era, which began in 2017.

The battles between the guys wearing headsets will likely determine the outcome in the divisional round.

“It’s a little funky going against a team two games in a row,” Seattle coach Mike Macdonald said in an interview with NBC on Sunday night. “We’ve got to do a great job of debriefing and having some answers, knowing that Kyle (Shanahan) will have some stuff dialed up for us.”

Macdonald was hired by Seattle in January 2024 for his defensive mind. The Seahawks’ defense had fallen off, and the problems were only accentuated by playing in the same division as Shanahan and Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay, two of the best offensive play callers in the NFL.

Shanahan and Macdonald have faced each other five times as opposing play callers since 2023, beginning with a Christmas game when Macdonald was the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator. The 49ers are 2-3 in those games and have averaged 18.4 points per game (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise).

Only once in those games has San Francisco’s starting offense produced more than 17 points (the backups saw action that Christmas). In games against Macdonald’s defense, the 49ers have averaged 1.76 points per drive. For context, the Carolina Panthers ranked No. 27 with a 1.80 per-drive average this season. San Francisco’s offensive EPA per play in those five games (minus-0.01) is the same average as the No. 21-ranked Arizona Cardinals’ this season.

The special sauce for Seattle in both games this season has been its run defense. Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 8 of the 2024 season. Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey had just 92 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per attempt in the two regular-season games against Seattle. His longest carry went for 13 yards in Week 1, and in the regular-season finale, he didn’t run for a first down.

Seattle takes great pride in its run defense, and the squad gets it done despite operating from a split-safety structure, which is traditionally advantageous for the offense because of how many defenders are in the box.

“As much as it feels good to get a sack, that feels just as good,” All-Pro defensive tackle Leonard Williams said of stuffing the run. “When we can play with two-high safeties and stop the run with just four down linemen, knowing that at least two or three of us are getting double teams, that means not only are we stopping the double teams, but we are beating the double teams.”

Schematically, there is a lot that goes into limiting explosive plays against Shanahan’s offense. He changes the picture for the defense with pre-snap motions and ties that to misdirection plays, often to get advantageous looks in the run game. From there, he puts second-level players in a bind and attacks the middle of the field in the passing game. This formula resulted in San Francisco routing Seattle 41-23 in the wild-card round of the 2022 playoffs, which was the last time Seattle made the playoffs.

This version of the Seahawks is better equipped to handle Shanahan’s attack, because of personnel and scheme. Macdonald’s post-snap rotations, timely run blitzes and well-scouted third-down looks have been key in smothering Shanahan’s offense. Williams was one of three Seahawks defenders named to an All-Pro team Saturday, along with inside linebacker Ernest Jones IV (second-team) and cornerback Devon Witherspoon (second-team). Defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, safety Julian Love and rookie nickel Nick Emmanwori all received multiple All-Pro votes.

If the marriage of talent and scheme remains fruitful, Seattle will once again have the advantage over one of the best schemers in the NFL.

The chess match on the other side of the ball is equally compelling. The 49ers, led by defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, held Klint Kubiak’s offense to 13 points in both meetings. Seattle averaged 1.37 points per drive (the Las Vegas Raiders ranked No. 31 this season with an average of 1.32), and its EPA per play average in the two games is on par with the New Orleans Saints’ average this season (minus-0.07).

While the 49ers had All-Pro talents such as Bosa and Fred Warner on the field in the first game, they weren’t working with nearly as much talent in the rematch. Their absences likely play significant roles next weekend as well.

In Week 1, Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet rushed for 67 yards on 22 attempts, but those two have combined for at least 130 rushing yards in each of the last three games. They combined for 171 yards in the 49ers rematch, delivering their best performance of the season. Facing a banged-up 49ers defense, Seattle saw an advantage on the line of scrimmage and exploited it. The recipe for success will be the same in the divisional round.

Kubiak runs a version of Shanahan’s offense. It is a scheme that generally relies on producing explosive plays out of heavy personnel, attacks the middle in the passing game and tries not to put too much on the quarterback’s plate so he can play fast and on time. It makes sense, then, that Shanahan and Saleh have given Seattle’s offense a good fight in both games. The third game will likely be more of the same, but it’s hard to scheme around a talent deficiency in the trenches, which is where Seattle won the second matchup.

Relying on the run game lessened the burden on Pro Bowl quarterback Sam Darnold, who led the league in turnovers and ranked second in turnover rate. Darnold fumbled on the final offensive play in Week 1, but he didn’t have any turnovers in Week 18 (though he came close on a botched handoff to Charbonnet and a near interception in the fourth quarter). The turnover battle was even in Week 1, though, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba lost a fumble, and Purdy threw two interceptions. Seattle was also plus-1 in Week 18 thanks to a goal-line interception by linebacker Drake Thomas in the fourth quarter.

“We did a great job taking care of the ball on offense; we attacked it on defense,” Macdonald said of the Week 18 win. “We’ve got to be able to do that back at Lumen.”

This will be Macdonald’s first playoff game as a head coach and Seattle’s first at home with fans present since the 2016 season, as the stands were empty for Seattle’s 2020 wild-card loss to the Rams. The Seahawks see their home environment as a legitimate weapon, which is why they threw a party in the visiting locker room after clinching the No. 1 seed. Macdonald has a good argument for winning the Coach of the Year award for the work he and his staff did this season. The work they do this week and on game day to counter whatever Shanahan and Saleh cook up will go a long way toward keeping this season alive.

“I just have to remember to remind myself that we got to this point because of our process every day,” Macdonald said. “Our mindset has really just been take away all the extra stuff (and) let’s focus on what we do, playing our style of football, and let the results take care of themselves.”