Oregon could be key to Obama-Clinton race

Published 11:14 pm Wednesday, February 6, 2008

PORTLAND, Ore. — Political junkies across Oregon cursed the Legislature’s refusal to move the state’s presidential primary up to February. Now the decision is looking like smart politics.

With Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois trading wins on Super Tuesday, there’s a growing possibility that Oregon’s May primary might be relevant — a prospect that once seemed unthinkable.

“It is conceivable that we will see Clinton and Obama parading through Oregon,” said Robert Eisinger, a political science professor at Lewis &Clark College in Portland. “There is the possibility of a two-person race through May.”

Of course, there’s still no guarantee that Oregon will matter. Some party analysts suggest Pennsylvania’s primary on April 22 could be the new decisive date. Others presume that either Clinton or Obama will eventually be pressured to drop out, allowing the party’s preferred choice to save money for the general election.

Things are looking less interesting for Republican voters. Arizona Sen. John McCain gained control of that race with his strong showing on Super Tuesday; however, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney vowed to keep going and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee promised to press on after posting some impressive wins in the South.

Oregon lawmakers declined to switch the primary date because doing so would have cost an estimated $2 million. Though the decision looks prescient for 2008, Eisinger said it would make sense to someday pair Oregon’s primary with Washington’s, where caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 9, and primaries are to follow 10 days later. That way candidates could get a two-for-one deal on a swing through the Pacific Northwest.

Even if legislators had moved the primary to Super Tuesday, there’s no guarantee the campaigns would have paid attention. Smaller states that took the plunge, such as North Dakota and Delaware, found themselves overshadowed by delegate-rich states such as California and New York.

“If we had gone to February, I don’t think anyone would have come here. There are so many other huge states to deal with,” said Dave Barrows, a veteran Salem lobbyist. “We may be in better shape in terms of people paying some attention to us than if we had moved.”

Some political observers say the Democratic race could go all the way to the party’s August convention in Denver, at which point a deal would be brokered to get delegates to unite around a single candidate.

To win the presidency, the Republican candidate needs to lock down 1,191 delegates to the party’s convention next summer. For the Democrats, the magic number is 2,025.

Like most states, Oregon’s 30 Republican delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis. Three of those delegates — GOP party chairman Vance Day and Republican National Committee members Solomon Yue and June Hartley — are what is known as “unbound” delegates, meaning their votes are not dictated by the state’s results. Yue and Hartley have pledged allegiance to Romney, while Day has said he will remain neutral.

On the Democratic side, it’s more complicated. Most of the state’s 65 delegates are awarded proportionally, based on the number of votes each candidate wins in a particular Congressional district. Twelve of the Democratic delegates are so-called “super delegates,” meaning they can support whichever candidate they choose at the convention. Six of the 12 are Gov. Ted Kulongoski, Sen. Ron Wyden and the state’s four Democratic Congressional representatives.

So far, Kulongoski and Rep. Darlene Hooley have lined up behind Clinton, while Rep. Earl Blumenauer is supporting Obama.

The Clinton and Obama campaigns have fairly skeletal organizations in the state, though individual supporters of each candidate have been holding house parties and raising money. Obama, who gave a speech in Portland last fall, has a fundraising lead over Clinton in Oregon — $372,000 to $215,793.

Even if Oregon doesn’t wind up playing a key role in the primaries, the state could see its fair share of candidates before November. Voters here have gone with the Democratic presidential candidate in recent elections, but McCain’s maverick reputation could play well among the state’s many nonaffiliated voters.

But there’s a long way to November, and some Oregonians are hoping for a meaningful May.

“It would sure be nice for people of my generation to be involved in a race that matters,” said Jesse Cornett, one of the founders of the Oregon Bus Project, a group formed to get younger people involved in politics. “And if you look at the tightness of the contest, it’s entirely possible.”