Burke: ‘Big One’ will hit one day; today’s the day to prepare

By Tom Burke / Herald Columnist

Peep.

Peep. Peep!

Hey, readers; it’s time for my semi-annual “Chicken Little” column.

But I’m not writing about the sky falling; rather, I’m writing about buildings and bridges; hillsides and streamsides; power lines, water lines, schools and sewage lines falling (or failing); and I-5, I-405, and I-90, plus U.S. 2 and Highway 9 and Highways 522, 99, and 525 and the ferries and lots of side streets and exit ramps and overpasses all blocked or collapsed or just shut down.

Yep. We’re talking The Big One. Again.

Why?

Well, for two reasons: First, I seem to suffer from an irrepressible moral imperative to warn folks about the cataclysm that’s sure to happen sometime, somewhere right here in Snohomish County and I haven’t written about prepping for and (hopefully) surviving that catastrophe in a while; and two, because a new report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is newly warning us, as Tina Dura, the study’s lead author and an associate professor of natural hazards at Virginia Tech, says, “We could have a disaster on the scale of Japan 2011 (20,000 dead or missing) or Sumatra 2004 (230,000 dead or missing). It’s the same kind of fault. It has the same capability of making a huge earthquake, tsunami and coastal subsidence.”

Now the focus of Dura’s study is the Pacific Northwest coast and it breaks new ground by combining the potential effects of a major earthquake, land subsidence, and sea-level rise. And it calls for enhanced awareness (and action) about how bad such an earthquake could be and where we build stuff such as airports and wastewater treatment plants and how we plan evacuation routes from tsunami-threatened areas.

But while the study’s focus is for the next 75 years or so out, my focus is tomorrow, or next week, or Sept. 21 or sometime in early 2026, or whenever. Because that’s when the earth might move and the Cascadia Subduction Zone might slip, and the world as we know it might end.

Now, gentle reader, you’re saying to yourself, “Burke’s just being an alarmist (again).” “He’s over-reacting.” “All that climate change junk and rising sea level crap and the ‘Sky is Falling’ BS is just part of his Trump Derangement Syndrome.”

Wanna bet?

Because what you’re betting — if you don’t listen to the people who actually study and know this stuff — is the lives of your family and friends and neighbors, and yourself.

You see, the real question isn’t, “When will the earthquake hit?” but, “Am I ready for it when it does?” In my opinion, if you’re not, you die.

Now there’s nothing going to save you (but pure dumb luck) if you’re in a non-earthquake-resistant building that collapses in a heap of rubble in downtown Everett. Or under an overpass on I-405 as it comes down. Or in the parking lot at the Mukilteo Lighthouse when a tsunami wave washes over breweries, restaurants and the ferry landing.

But for those not instantly dead, it’s going to be a long, hard, potentially-fatal time ‘till help arrives. (Read both the assessment (mil.wa.gov/cascadia-rising) of 2022’s “Cascadia Rising” multi-agency planning exercise which predicted about 14,000 fatalities, more than 100,000 injuries and the collapse of about 620,000 buildings in the Pacific Northwest, including 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools and Snohomish County’s prediction of county-wide “population islands” in this excellent Herald article: tinyurl.com/HeraldQuakeIslands.

Then do a self-assessment to determine how ready you are. It’s quite simple: Can you exist for at least a month without going to the supermarket, gas station or getting an Amazon delivery?

And if you can’t, you’re in deep yogurt, as they say.

Because help won’t arrive for at least a month. (Probably longer as Trump-Musk continues to defund FEMA and Trump has already denied, twice, relief aid to bright-blue Washington state.)

So, do you have enough water? Non-perishable food? First-aid supplies? Prescription medicine? A plan to contact loved ones if you’re at work, they’re at school, or otherwise scattered? A place to keep dry? All your important papers in a safe place (passport, insurance policies, deeds, car registrations, etc.)? Do you have at least $100 in small bills, because the ATM won’t be working and those $3,000-an-ounce gold bars you’ve salted away aren’t gonna help if you’re trying to buy a pound of apples or some onions.

There’s no shortage of literature about prepping for an earthquake or other natural disaster. The Red Cross, Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management, and FEMA (plus other state and federal agencies) all have volumes, pounds, gallons, stacks-upon-stacks-upon-stacks of booklets, pamphlets, and handbooks on emergency prep.

Local fire departments offer multi-week courses on what to do. There’s also guest speakers galore for civic, church, and community groups about how to cope. And Amazon has prepackaged disaster kits that can be delivered to your doorstep.

People, there’s no excuse for not knowing what to expect in the way of an earthquake. There’s no excuse for not knowing how to prepare for one.

And frankly, I can’t think of anything worse in my life than sitting somewhere, surrounded by your family, watching them dangerously thirsty, the kids desperately hungry, and grandparents without their meds, and asking yourself, “Why? Why did I not listen? How could I be so deaf. Please god, help me.”

Folks, it ain’t prayers that will save you. But prayers and preparation might.

Slava Ukraini.

Tom Burke’s email address is t.burke.column@gmail.com.