Comment: UK’s Tories down to their last chance as Truss exits

Published 1:30 am Friday, October 21, 2022

By Therese Raphael / Bloomberg Opinion

Last week, bets were taken on whether a head of lettuce would outlast Liz Truss’ premiership. The livestreamed wilting lettuce won. Six days after dumping Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng — along with her entire economic program — Truss told the King, and then the public, that she’s stepping down. “I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected.”

Truss proved every bit as unfit for office as her many detractors had warned when Conservative Party members chose her 44 days ago over Rishi Sunak to lead the country. But as her party selects its fourth prime minister since David Cameron resigned in the wake of the Brexit referendum, is there any confidence they’ll do better this time?

It would take a lot to do worse. Defenders of Truss tried arguing that her early missteps were down to an ambitious economic vision that was poorly articulated and whose delivery was clumsy and mistimed. But a confusion of policy statements, resignations and reversed resignations, all in the span of 24 hours, spoke to an underlying dysfunction at Downing Street.

Truss lost her Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, on Wednesday, ostensibly over a breach of ministerial code in using her private email but clearly there was also a policy argument over immigration. That was followed by chaos in Parliament over a Labour Party motion to force a vote on fracking. Tory MPs were torn between backing their own manifesto commitment to ban fracking and a government whipping order to back the U-turn. There were allegations of some being bullied and manhandled. The confusion saw Chief Whip Wendy Morton and her deputy resign and then unresign.

Even those who normally embody the famous wartime “keep calm” mantra descended into disbelief and despair. An out-of-character spleen-venting from backbench MP Charles Walker went viral. “This whole affair is inexcusable; it is a pitiful reflection on the Conservative Party at every level,” he told the BBC. “I have had enough of talentless people putting their tick in the right box, not because it’s in the national interest but because it’s in their own personal interest to achieve ministerial position.”

Walker’s frustration at incompetence and careerism speaks to problems in the Conservative Party that extend beyond the Truss troubles. The Brexit wars undeniably led to a hollowing out of the party that has governed since 2010. Boris Johnson purged many experienced ministers and lawmakers. Truss followed Johnson’s lead, freezing out doubters until the market backlash forced her to appoint Jeremy Hunt as her chancellor to stop the bleeding.

The experience of recent years suggests the entire approach to selecting ministers and evaluating governing choices is skewed toward those who claim they can predict outcomes and control events over those who acknowledge complexity and price in tradeoffs. Ideological positions too often edged out serious debate.

The consequences for questioning the orthodoxy are brutal. It said everything that Sunak, an original Brexiteer, was sidelined by this group for calling out Truss’ economic prescriptions. Those who believe in classical liberal policies — including smaller government and lower taxes — should be furious; thanks to Truss’ mismanagement, they have been tarred as radical libertarians, their ideas caricatured and their voices crowded out, for perhaps a generation.

If there’s a last chance saloon for the Tories, surely this is it. Truss announced a new leadership election will be completed in a week, which suggests the party will try to unify around a candidate and avoid putting a choice of two candidates to Tory members, as party rules require if there is no single consensus candidate. That is an exceptionally short time in which to choose a leader, though the party only had a contest months ago so it’s not as if the candidates aren’t already well vetted.

The betting is around Sunak — still resented by Johnson’s supporters — and Penny Mordaunt, popular with both MPs and the public and a strong parliamentary performer, but with less heavyweight government experience. Hunt has apparently ruled himself out for the top job and would be expected to remain as chancellor. Other contenders from the summer, including Braverman or (gulp) even the recently ousted Boris, may threaten to drag things out further, however so expect some intense horse-trading in the days ahead.

It’s hard not to improve on the current situation, but whoever replaces Truss will have a very short time in which to restore a sense of competence, coherence and governing mission. Their first job must be to set the right tone. That has to mean finally dispensing with the simplistic thinking that led to the ideological cul de sac of recent years.

To be successful again, the party needs to facilitate more conversation between its different wings and see that represented in government. While lowering the tax burden should remain a plan for the future, when public finances allow, the government will need to be creative about ways to encourage investment and growth. That should mean an open discussion on immigration, given Britain’s tight labor market, and resolving tensions with Europe over Northern Ireland so that closer cooperation and trade ties can be rebuilt. Dealing with the reality of Brexit means at least acknowledging its economic costs.

The next prime minister may have longer than Truss’s 44 days and counting — the shortest tenure in British history — to put their stamp on things. But unless the Tories can articulate a compelling vision of what they stand for, voters won’t stand for them come the next election.

Therese Raphael is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion covering health care and British politics.