By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
Nassim Taleb, statistician, risk analyst and author of “Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” describes the Lucretius problem. Named after Roman philosopher Titus Lucretius, it describes a blind spot in human perception, the difficulty in imagining things outside our personal experience.
Climate change illustrates the Lucretius problem. Extreme weather events—- hurricanes, storms, floods and heat — are increasing in frequency, intensity and cost well beyond historic measurements and our experiences. And yet our emergency planning and preparation are based on a history that is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. Fortunately, that is beginning to change.
Preparing adaptation and resiliency plans for climate change are a timely and cost effective response. Dollars spent in preparation for climate resilience have a significant return on investment in terms of economic impacts, damages and cleanup costs.
Asheville, N.C., is a textbook case. Asheville was thought of as a “climate haven” nestled in the Appalachian Mountains hundreds of miles from the coast and thousands of feet above sea level. Then Hurricane Helene dumped trillions of gallons of water on the region with devastating consequences.
Asheville’s infrastructure was not prepared for almost 14 inches of rain in a short period of time. It was severely damaged and will cost tens of millions to rebuild. Helene damaged water treatment, waste water, transportation and energy infrastructure throughout the southeast U.S. Damages are in the tens of billions.
Climate change is driving extreme events across the globe. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September, Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “We are in a climate meltdown. Extreme temperatures, raging fires, droughts and epic floods are not natural disasters. They are human disasters; increasingly fueled by fossil fuels. No country is spared. But the poorest and most vulnerable are hardest hit.”
Hurricanes are not a threat to the Pacific Northwest, but atmospheric rivers, extreme heat events and wildfires are. Climate change increases their frequency and intensity, and slows the progression of the jet stream, making these events longer and stronger. Recent examples include the Pacific Northwest’s 2021 heat dome responsible for hundreds of deaths and catastrophic flooding in the Nooksack River that same year.
Atmospheric rivers and flooding occur every year in the Pacific Northwest. According to NOAA, an atmospheric river — aka pineapple express — transports condensed water vapor thousands of miles from the tropics. When it hits the West Coast it can generate a series of storms capable of producing inches of rain or feet of snow. Strong atmospheric rivers can carry as much water as 15 Mississippi Rivers.
The Washington state Office of Insurance Commissioner sponsors a Climate Summit Series focusing on climate change and risks.
Earlier this month, the OIC presented it Flood Awareness Week including a presentation by state Climatologist Guillaume Mauger describing three ways climate change leads to more and bigger floods.
1. Declining snowpack: when precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, it flows directly into river systems increasing water volume instead of being stored for release during spring melting.
2. Heavier rains: atmospheric rivers increase water volume.
3. Sea level rise: particularly during king tides, as seawater pushes against swelling river systems, increasing flooding.
Washington state is a national leader in climate resilience and adaptation. In September the Department of Ecology released the Washington State Climate Resilience Strategy prepared by an interagency team including the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group.
It anticipates the acceleration of climate impacts and recommends strategies to minimize negative impacts to infrastructure and communities. The strategies are based on best available science. Local and Tribal governments can follow this lead to develop local climate resilience.
Preparing adaptation and resiliency strategies for climate change is expensive. Asheville’s devastation teaches us that failing to do so is more expensive. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that every $1 invested in resilience and disaster preparedness saves $13 in economic impact, damage and cleanup costs. Washington’s Climate Commitment Act is a critical source of funding for these efforts.
The “Washington Climate Resilience Strategy” is a vital tool to help safeguard our economy, infrastructure and communities from the accelerating impacts of climate change. It was funded in part by the State’s Climate Commitment Act. Yet another reason voters should vote no on Initiative 2117 and preserve essential funding for future needs.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past Chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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