Jet orders likely to zoom

Published 7:33 pm Thursday, December 6, 2007

EVERETT — This past week, the Boeing Co. cushioned it’s record sales year by tacking on 95 commercial jet orders.

In its third straight 1,000-plus order year, Boeing’s 95 orders seem insignificant, even mundane. In the context of the past decade of commercial jet sales, however, analysts say the number is insane. On Thursday, the Aerospace Industries Association predicted the crazy onslaught of orders could continue into 2008.

“There is pent-up demand among the domestic carriers for aircraft,” Marion Blakely, the association’s chief executive and former administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, told the Associated Press. “They have not stepped in to modernize their fleets the way international carriers have.”

The association’s annual report forecasts sales by Boeing, Lockheed Martin Corp. and others to rise, on average, by about 6 percent to more than $210.6 billion, with commercial planes, engines and other parts leading the way next year. For 2007, the group estimates that sales climbed 8.5 percent to $198.8 billion. That figure includes $92.5 billion in sales from foreign customers, an increase of $7.5 billion, or 8.8 percent, from last year’s $85 billion, driven by higher demand for commercial aircraft.

Through Dec. 4, Boeing has won 1,144 net orders in 2007 — its highest sales total in a single year. The new total breaks even rival Airbus’ best sales year. On Thursday, Boeing posted an order from Qantas for 20 787 Dreamliners. The company added two Boeing Business jet orders — one 737, one 787 — along with orders for 73 more jets to undisclosed customers.

The aerospace company’s rival Airbus updates its orders monthly. The Toulouse, France-based jetmaker had not published its November sales totals by press time Thursday. Airbus listed 1,021 commercial jet orders at the end of October. That total is expected to rise significantly considering the company claimed 163 firm orders during the Dubai Air Show in mid-November.

Boeing’s chief of commercial airplanes, Scott Carson, told the French newspaper Le Monde that he suspects Airbus will wind up with more jet orders than Boeing this year. However, with more than three weeks to go, Carson noted that the year isn’t over yet.

The planemaker doesn’t include tentative deals in its year-to-date orders total. Several airlines have announced orders for Boeing jets that have not been finalized so far this year.

Already this year, Boeing has landed 314 orders for its fast-selling 787 Dreamliner. Carson, along with newly appointed 787 program head Pat Shanahan, will provide an update on the Dreamliner next week. In October, Boeing pushed back the first flight and delivery of its 787 by six months. With the high cost of oil, however, Boeing’s fuel-efficient jet has continued to win orders despite the delay.

With 1,144 net orders this year, Boeing has surpassed its combined sales totals for the years of 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. In fact, the 787, with its 314 requests this year, has brought in more orders in 2007 than Boeing’s total annual orders in any one of those four years.

As the demand for Boeing’s 787 increases, so does the wait to get one. Boeing is scheduling deliveries of the 787 out into 2016. The long lead-time is one reason many industry observers expect major U.S. carriers to place requests for the jet soon.

In the meantime, some airlines and leasing companies are bridging the gap with Boeing’s 767. Boeing has pitched a tanker version of this jet to the U.S. Air Force.

The aerospace association projects a decline in military sales next year because of uncertainty over designated funding for aircraft in the federal budget. That uncertainty is due in part because of delays in the contract awards of the $40 billion aerial refueling tanker and a $15 billion combat search and rescue helicopter. Boeing is competing for both contracts.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

New 737

The Boeing Co.’s Scott Carson told the Financial Times that the aerospace company could begin work on a replacement for the single-aisle 737 within the next 18 months. The latest generation of narrow-body aircraft could enter service by 2015. Boeing’s popular Renton-built 737 has won more than 6,000 orders since it debuted in 1967. The company came out with the Next Generation 737 family beginning in the mid-1990s.