Top picks not worth the money
Published 11:28 pm Saturday, March 15, 2008
There was a time when the first overall pick in the NFL draft was coveted. Now, it’s almost as much burden as benefit.
Is that a bad thing? I don’t think so. Now teams have even more motivation to avoid being lousy.
The Dolphins have this year’s No. 1 pick, and it will be nearly impossible for them to trade it. Moving up that high in the draft is simply not worth the money anymore.
This year’s No. 1 pick is expected to command a contract worth at least $30 million in guaranteed money. If Peyton Manning were in this year’s draft, trading for the No. 1 pick would be tempting. But with no surefire franchise quarterback on the board, nobody is salivating for the privilege of shelling out $30 million guaranteed.
Trying to persuade someone to trade for the No. 1 pick has become like trying to persuade a bald man to get a haircut. No team has traded into the top 10 picks in the past two drafts, and the concept of the draft has been hurt by enormous rookie contracts.
“Trades are a unique thing in the first round anymore because of the cost of the top 10 picks financially,” says Colts President Bill Polian. “To take on that cost, and then give up something to do it, is almost counter intuitive. And that’s clearly not what the draft was designed to be. The draft was designed to either allow the weakest teams based on record to choose the best players, or if they choose not to take a particular player, to gather a bunch of picks to further accelerate their growth and competitiveness. That’s been skewed completely by the cost of the top 15 picks.
“If I’m after the first pick and I have to pay $30 million for it, how much do I want to give up in addition to that? And if you fail with that pick, your franchise is saddled with an albatross that you can’t get rid of for who knows how long.”
I agree with Polian that huge contracts have made trading up less appealing. But I’m glad that having the No. 1 pick is not the bargaining chip it once was. Having the No. 1 pick means you had the worst record in the NFL. You should be rewarded only so much for finishing 1-15.
The NFL is not like the NBA, where an extraordinary No. 1 pick such as LeBron James makes up one-fifth of your starting lineup. There are so many more holes to fill in the NFL that a single player can’t have that kind of impact. And if you pick someone unworthy of being No. 1, as the Texans did in 2002 (David Carr) and the Browns did in 2000 (Courtney Brown), it sets back your franchise for years.
The Dolphins can’t afford that kind of mistake. They will have a host of good players to choose from at No. 1 — defensive end Chris Long, offensive tackle Jake Long, defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Darren McFadden, defensive end Vernon Gholston or defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Their decision will garner plenty of attention, but how well the Dolphins pick in Rounds 2 through 7 will also play a crucial role in determining how quickly they rebuild. Look at what the Giants did last year, getting contributions from almost all of their 2007 draft choices and building depth that helped them win a Super Bowl. Teams that consistently draft well do not worry as much about whether they pick No. 1, No. 10 or No. 20.
“Scouts, that’s really where we make our money, on the second day of the draft,” says Giants general manager Jerry Reese. “You can really find some steals. We pride ourselves on trying to do that.”
Since 2000, seven different teams have had the No. 1 pick. None of those teams has won a Super Bowl during that period, and only one of them, the Chargers, made the playoffs last season.
Having the No. 1 pick is more expensive than ever, and it doesn’t always pay great dividends. The Dolphins are in position to get an excellent player at No. 1. But it should tell you something that nobody is eager to trade places with them.
