Importance of NFL draft is hard to weigh
Published 11:26 pm Monday, April 21, 2008
The only truism in NFL circles is that there is no clear blueprint to a Super Bowl appearance.
Some teams, like the Seattle Seahawks and the defending champion New York Giants, believe that contenders are built through the annual draft. Others, like New England’s perennial powerhouse, have relied more on free agents and long-time veterans.
For the fourth consecutive year, The Herald has put together the annual Draft Rating Index, which charts how teams have done in recent NFL drafts. While most fans are looking ahead toward this weekend’s installment of the annual draft, The Herald is once again looking at how important successful drafts actually are to a team’s success on the field.
The simple answer: it depends.
Just look at the most recent Super Bowl participants.
The Giants relied on several recent draft picks, including a few who contributed as 2007 rookies, to get to the big game. The Patriots won 18 games in a row despite a subpar record in recent drafts.
The Draft Rating Index (DRI) is a system devised by The Herald in 2005. The goal was to rank teams’ drafts in five-year increments. Every drafted player is assigned a point value between zero (for those who are no longer in the league) and six (for Pro Bowlers who are still starting for the team that drafted them). The average point value of each player is then calculated, giving each team a DRI number.
Of the drafts between 2003 and 2007, the Giants ranked fifth in terms of DRI figures, with an average of 2.54. New England, at 2.09, ranked 26th among the 32 teams.
Arizona, which had 12 players from the past five drafts in its starting lineup, was the surprising winner. Behind successful picks like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby and Darnell Dockett, the Cardinals posted an NFL-best DRI value of 3.12.
The San Diego Chargers finished second with a rating of 3.10, led by an outstanding 2004 draft that included Igor Olshansky, Nate Kaeding, Nick Hardwick, Shaun Phillips and Michael Turner. (The Chargers also earned points for quarterback Philip Rivers, who was technically drafted by the Giants but soon traded for Eli Manning.)
The Seahawks (2.46) ranked 11th, getting big points for Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill while getting docked for picks like Wayne Hunter, Solomon Bates and David Greene.
Full DRI rankings (see chart) and reports on all 32 NFL teams are available at cmg-northwest2.go-vip.net/heraldnet/nfldraft.
The goal of the DRI is to grade drafts based on how much a player participates, and starts, for the team that selected him. Too often, teams are graded a day after the draft, before the new players suit up for a single NFL game.
The post-draft grades often miss the mark. For example, national experts had some of the following observations on recent drafts:
n The day after the 2005 draft, ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli assessed the Seahawks’ early second-round selection of middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu as “a bit of a reach.”
n Pasquarelli named the Minnesota Vikings as one of the big winners of the ‘05 draft, citing picks like future first-round bust Troy Williamson.
n Sports Illustrated’s Paul “Dr. Z” Zimmerman lauded the Cleveland Browns’ 2005 third-round selection by saying he could “really put them over the top.” That player, quarterback Charlie Frye, was traded to the Seahawks early last season after flaming out in Cleveland.
n Zimmerman gave the San Francisco 49ers a B-plus for their 2004 draft, which was led by Oklahoma State wide receiver Rashaun Woods. The first-round pick played just one season in the NFL.
n In 2003, Pasquarelli gave the Baltimore Ravens an A-plus for drafting Cal quarterback Kyle Boller. Oops.
Not to single out Zimmerman or Pasquarelli — they both did, rightfully, rip the Denver Broncos for picking Maurice Clarett in Round 3 of the ‘05 draft — but the so-called “experts” are too often looking ahead and rarely looking back.
The DRI allows teams to evaluate their recent drafts based not on projections but on actual merits. The results are somewhat surprising.
Just last week, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. defended the importance of the annual draft by telling reporters that the Super Bowl XLII participants relied heavily on recent drafts to build contenders. But closer inspection proves that only the Giants were able to capitalize on recent draft success. Manning, Brandon Jacobs and Osi Umenyiora were obvious reasons for the Super Bowl appearance, while 2007 draft picks like Kevin Boss, Steve Smith and Jay Alford had direct impacts on the win over the Patriots.
New England has found a few starting linemen in recent drafts, but many of their stars — receiver Randy Moss, linebacker Mike Vrabel and safety Rodney Harrison — were added through trades or free agency. Not a single player taken in the Patriots’ 2007 draft went on to become a starter.
Every team enters draft weekend with the goal of building for the future, but not all teams find success. The Chargers have been better than anyone at turning good drafts into Sunday victories. Top 10 DRI teams Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Dallas have also stockpiled through the draft.
When it comes to individual drafts, no one has had the success that San Diego GM A.J. Smith has. In his first two drafts — 2004 and 2005 — Smith added seven starters. The 2006 draft included future Pro Bowlers Antonio Cromartie and Marcus McNeill.
Seahawks team president Tim Ruskell said last week that teams, on average, can expect to add two starters from each draft. Good drafts bring three starters, while exceptional ones can bring as many as four.
“No one hits 100 percent, but we do drive ourselves to find that guy in every round,” Ruskell said. “I think you have to have that drive because if you relax then you fail. (But) you will miss something. “
Some more than others.
